The Kids Are Alright

by Oscar Wood (@reunewal)

During the many struggles Arsenal have faced over the course of the last two seasons, one of the few consistent positives has been the emergence of an increasingly large selection of talented young players. While the hype around any young footballers who show signs of promise is rarely lacking at the best of times, the situation at Arsenal has only led to this being intensified. Starting from the Europa League group stage last season, the performances of these younger players has often been in contrast to the struggles of older, more highly paid players, who have themselves been underperforming. What more, with Arsenal currently looking as far away from the elite of European football as they have been for decades, the idea of talented academy products and youth signings provides an element of long term hope that simply doesn’t exist in the short term. 

Arguably the most impressive performer so far, as well as the most exciting prospect is Bukayo Saka. Not only has he been a consistent starter and one of the best performers for Arsenal in the Premier League for a year now, he’s also a talent with few clear limitations and boundaries when it comes to his development possibilities. Left back, left wing, right wing, weird left wing-back/left sided interior hybrid, Saka has flourished to various extents playing all of them. What more, his mastery of these different roles is only growing. Just two weeks ago I tweeted scepticism that the right wing would be his ultimate position, only for him to put in probably his most complete right sided performance of his senior career in the next game at West Brom. 

He's obviously still young enough to completely prove me wrong, but I'd be surprised if Saka's future is playing on the right. Which is a bit of a shame given Martinelli and Tierney are the other two best u25 players at the club.

— Oscar (@Reunewal) December 29, 2020

In some ways, it’s this versatility of Saka that entices people the most. One of the reasons fans love young players in the first place is that there are fewer constraints to what they could become. Even top quality older players are restricted to their strengths and weaknesses that are unlikely to change much. With a youngster of Saka’s ilk this isn’t the case, fans can envisage almost any future they want for the player.

The number of best case scenarios that have been suggested for his future peak are countless: a cut-in and shoot scorer and creator from the right (Arjen Robben), a dynamic outside winger on the left (Leroy Sane), a creative interior (David Silva), a versatile box-to-box player (Blaise Matuidi), a dynamic left-back (Alphonso Davies), a Swiss army knife left sided player (Raphaël Guerreiro). 

Of course, Saka still has to make significant progress in his development if he’s to reach the heights any of those players have, but the signs are good at such a young age. He has shown some good off ball movement, an ability to create his own shots and an eye for a final ball that suggests he could become a prolific forward. His xG + xA per 90 in the league this season is 0.4, bettered only by Ferran Torres and Phil Foden for players under 22 in the Premier League. 

In terms of his general play, he has been an integral part in the build of multiple goals - both v West Ham, and the equaliser v Southampton - with his dribbling and passing. If he is to become more of an outright midfielder the next step is arguably to simply get on the ball more, as he’s shown he has the quality to do good things with it. Arsenal have lacked a high touch attacking player post-Özil and Alexis, someone you can give the ball to against a set defence in hope of inspiration. That has often been Saka this season but it has usually come in flashes rather than across 90 minutes. It could, however, simply be a case that the team improving and becoming more dominant will see Saka become that player. 

Rather than pigeonholing him into one role and assessing his development relative to that, it seems best to simply let him grow, and only fix a role for him based on the aspects of his game that continue to improve.

Gabriel Martinelli’s game is a lot more simple. Since his move to North London, he has proven to be very effective at getting on the end of moves for a teenager in his first season playing at the elite level, and has been an incredibly committed and hard working presser. It is the latter that has helped endear him so much to fans. His energy and determination is infectious and is the sort of thing that can lift his teammates as well as fans. 

He is, however, still incredibly raw, which isn’t a surprise or a criticism given it’s only 18 months ago that he came to the club from the Brazilian fourth tier. There have been obvious comparisons between him and Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal’s last superstar South American forward. The comparison fits in the position they play and the attitude and personality they play with. Martinelli, however, hasn’t shown much to suggest he can be the ball dominant, dribbling, creative force that Alexis was at Arsenal. There’s room for that side of his game to grow, however, and even without it, he’s still good enough to be a useful Premier League player at 19 thanks to his athletic capabilities and his movement.

It’s at this point worth noting that expecting Martinelli to reach the next level in the next season or two probably isn’t realistic. There are many examples of current Premier League attackers - Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Christian Pulisic - who broke through as capable starters at the age of 18 and mostly stayed at that level for a few years before reaching another level in their early 20s. For Gabi the next couple of years will be about building minutes, and Arsenal fans will likely have to put up with his current deficiencies once his new prospect shine begins wearing off - which history suggests will happen.  

Peter (@ThatGooner) has done a comprehensive analysis on Martinelli that looks into the micro details of his game that is worth reading.

Emile Smith-Rowe is probably the player with the most immediate upside for the team, since the squad has no other player who provides the same skills or operates in the same zones of the pitch. 

Smith-Rowe looks very much like the archetype modern number 10. Like Saka, he has demonstrated an impressive level of footballing intelligence when it comes to his movement and choice of pass, but he also has the level of athleticism needed to be a threat in transition, both in carrying the ball at this feet and in the runs he can make off it. The Saka goal at West Brom was probably the most encouraging bit of play in Arsenal’s season, and the best example of Smith-Rowe’s most important qualities. He plays a first time line breaking pass and then immediately sprints into the space in behind. It’s the kind of pass and move play that has been so lacking in recent times.

While it’s the potential creative upside of his game that excites people the most, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s his carrying of the ball and his goal scoring threat that becomes his best asset. From the limited amounts of him I’ve seen at Arsenal and in highlights for Huddersfield, his passing seems competent for a Premier League number 10 rather than potentially special. That said it really is too early to make definitive judgements. He has still played only five Premier League matches in his career. Now that he has established himself very much in the first XI picture, he needs to finally have an extended run of staying fit before we can make more clear judgements. 

The flip-side of the rise of three three over the last year has been the scaling back of expectations for the 99 generation of Hale End products, all of whom are 21 and are yet to establish themselves as should be starters. That, however, doesn’t mean they no longer serve value. 

Eddie Nketiah could fairly make a case that he is the rarest of things, an under-hyped academy product. While he lacks the traits of a future superstar, at 21 he has already proven himself to be competent at the hardest skill in football; scoring goals. Both last season and this season his non-penalty xG in the Premier League has been fractionally better than Aubameyang’s. While Arsenal’s Europa League group this season was particularly weak, Nketiah still dominated it, scoring 3 and producing over 4 xG from 20 shots within the box. No other Arsenal player who played the group stage was able to get close to as many good shots off. Even his failure to get starts ahead of Patrick Bamford at Leeds last season looks a lot less damning now than it did then. 

Nketiah probably won’t become a striker good enough to lead Arsenal where they want to be, but he is likely already close to being a bottom half Premier League starter, with plenty of years ahead of him to continue to grow. For Arsenal that leaves him as a good squad player or a potential sale for a sizeable profit, like Alex Iwobi before him, who can make space for the next product on the conveyor belt, such as Folarin Balogun, to take his place in the squad. 

Reiss Nelson was at one stage considered the biggest prospect at Arsenal - having won player of the season in the PL 2 as Arsenal u23 won the division in 2017/18 - but a failure to push on in the first team and the emergence of aforementioned others has seen him become something of a forgotten man. I still think he can offer value as a technically secure wide player, but it’s looking unlikely that he will become a truly prolific wide forward in the Premier League. 

Joe Willock hype arguably peaked 18 months ago, and his reputation among Arsenal fans now feels very low compared to his new peers. He has reached an interesting stage of his career where he has been able to dominate the Europa League group stages, but in the PL minutes he has been given he hasn’t been able to make much impression. Now 21 it feels like he’s moved beyond loan age, but one could still be useful to a club near the top end of Championship or the lower end of the Bundesliga. Somewhere where he could play lots of minutes and the club can make a more definitive judgement on his level. It seems unlikely his passing and overall technical level will ever be good enough to be a starting midfielder for a club with top four aspirations, but he does still offer a unique profile in the squad with his off ball running from deep areas. 

Moving away from the 21 and under club, the trio of 23 year olds in Kieran Tierney, Gabriel and Ainsley Maitland-Niles will also have big roles to play in Arsenal’s continue rebuild. Tierney has already become a cult hero amongst the fanbase and the last few weeks have seen his best performance level at the club. While Gabriel fell back to earth somewhat in his last few performances of 2020, his season so far remains the most promising displays from a young(ish) centre back at Arsenal since probably Laurent Koscielny’s debut season. The hope is that those two will form the left side of Arsenal’s defence for years to come. Maitland-Niles remains in an interesting place. In only a year Arteta has flip-flopped on his use of Maitland-Niles multiple times. While it’s still possible he could make the right back spot his own, it seems more likely that if he’s not sold he’ll remain a valuable squad member; a versatile player who can play either fullback spot thanks to his great one v one defending. 

Of course it would be remiss to mention that it’s not all been rosey with Arsenal’s younger players recently. Two years ago Mattéo Guendouzi was comfortably the most polished youngster at the club, and was already proving a fine Premier League midfielder at 19. Without getting into the rights and wrongs of his demise under Arteta, it feels unlikely Arsenal’s best young midfielder has much of a future at the club, which is a massive shame. Meanwhile William Saliba, signed for an eye watering £27 million in 2018, has essentially had six wasted months playing under 23 football. At 19 it was probably unrealistic to expect him to be ready to start in the Premier League, and the whole ordeal doesn’t mean he now can’t be a long term success at Arsenal, but the club were indecisive during the summer as to whether he was ready, and this has cost him development time.

A talented collection of young players is by no means new for Arsenal. With the likes of Cesc Fabregas, Nicolas Anelka, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in the last couple of decades, Arsenal have had some of the best teenage players in the world at their club, guys who were key players on teams that were among the European elite. Even in more recent history, the likes of Serge Gnabry, Jeff Reine-Adélaïde, Ismaël Bennacer and Donyell Malen have been around only to fall by the wayside. This current generation is benefitting from the fact Arsenal have to lean into them, and are thus getting more opportunities to showcase their talent. 

Academy products - and cheap young signings, which essentially fall into the same bracket - can serve three functions. They can provide a cheap route to a star player who would be too expensive to obtain through the market, such as Harry Kane at Tottenham. They can provide a cheap way to fill out the squad, as Manchester United did so successfully under Ferguson, something Tim Stillman has pointed out numerous times on the pod and in articles. Or they can be sold for profit, as Alex Iwobi was when he left for Everton. 

In Saka and Martinelli, Arsenal have prospects that have shown signs they could become future star players. If just one of them, or someone else, can reach that level, then this crop of players will have succeeded. Most of the current 21 and under club will likely never become more than reliable starters or squad options, and that is fine. For a while now some of us have been frustrated that the club hasn’t focused more of their transfer strategy on younger players. The current success of these players show that a 20 year old prospect can be just as good, if not better, at football than an experienced player on big wages. Maybe this will be an epiphany for Arsenal’s long term rebuild.  

25 Best Individual Arsenal Seasons of the Emirates Era

Ranking the top 25 individual Arsenal seasons of the Emirates era

It can feel hard to believe, but Arsenal have been playing at the Emirates stadium for the best part of 14 years now. While this period hasn’t seen the same level of team success that Arsenal experienced at the end of their time at Highbury, the Gunners have still had many world class players who have produced some phenomenal seasons in Arsenal colours. Here are the best of them ranked. But first, a few things to note: 

I thought about limiting entries to one season per player but decided not to. However, I have tried to reflect a broad spectrum of players who have played for Arsenal in this time. Realistically there have been a handful of Arsenal players who truly standout for their exceptional quality in this period, and there could be a case for them making up a large chunk of the 25 best seasons. I feel the exercise is more interesting, however, if it gives preference to the standout season of a good player over a regular season by a world class one. Players playing different roles also matters. For example I haven’t included van Persie in 10/11 - a season one could argue should make the top 10 - since it was essentially an injury plagued prelude to his 11/12 self, which will be a contender for the top spots. On the other hand, central midfield Cazorla and attacking midfield Cazorla were different players, and therefore each role has a unique case to be in the list.

Stats use 

In the statistical summaries, all stats are league only, unless they’re put in (brackets) in which case they’re all comps. 

NPG = Non-penalty goals. Their total goals with penalties removed. 

90s = Their number of minutes divide by 90. A more accurate representation of their game time than the appearance stat. 

League goal and assist stats come from fbref.com. NPG stats for all comps come from transfermarkt.com. Other stats come from whoscored.com where possible.

Now, onto the list.

25. Gilberto - 2006/07

Statistical highlights: 32.6 (45.5) 90s played. 5 (5) NPG. 

Arsenal’s first season at the Emirates Stadium was arguably the club’s least eventful. The team finished fourth in the league, a long way behind second but comfortably ahead of fifth. The Champions League and FA Cup meanwhile, saw underwhelming exits at the last 16 stage. A dramatic league double over United (the last time Arsenal would do such a thing) and the run to the league cup final were the highlights. The stadium shift also coincided with a genuine change in eras that occurred this season. Bergkamp, Pires, Campbell, Cole, Reyes and Lauren all left the club, and while Thierry Henry stayed, he missed lots of the season through injury and only contributed 12 goals in all competitions. 19-year-old Cesc Fabregas won player of the year, though he would reach greater heights that we’ll look at later. One of the few people left over from the Invincibles era was Gilberto, who was the most senior player for most of the season and produced a level of consistency in defensive midfield that has only fleetingly been seen since.

24. Olivier Giroud - 2016/17

Statistical highlights: 12 (15) NPG & 3 (5) assists in 13.4 (19.8) 90s. 

When thinking of Olivier Giroud’s best Arsenal seasons, I initially thought of 13/14 and 14/15. In 13/14 he led Arsenal’s line week in week out, accumulating a solid 16 goals and 8 assists in the league. The following campaign he suffered a bad injury in August, but upon his return went on a fantastic scoring streak that faded in April and May. With that in mind 16/17 might be considered a strange choice. He wasn’t even a starter for most of the season after all. That, however, is why it was Giroud’s best season. The super sub role suited him in a way trying to be the leader of a title challenge never did. He regularly came off the bench to offer a different threat, and he was prolific in doing so, most notably assisting just a few seconds after coming on in the FA Cup final against Chelsea. It isn’t a coincidence that Giroud went from being an incredibly divisive and at times outright unpopular player in his first four years at the club, to an extremely popular one, whose name was sung around the Emirates stadium while he played in a Chelsea shirt last year. That wouldn’t have been possible, without his 16/17. 

23. Alexandre Lacazette - 2018/19 

Statistical highlights: 13 (19) NPG & 8 (11) assists in 27.8 (37) 90s.

Given his troubles this season, it’s easy to forget that Alexandre Lacazette was a hugely popular player as recently as the summer, and comfortably beat out Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang in the fan vote for player of the season in 2018/19. His output was solid rather than spectacular, with 13 goals and 8 assists in 28 90s in the league. But Laca did have a habit of scoring in the big games at the Emirates stadium, netting against Liverpool, Tottenham and Chelsea, as well as against Napoli and Valencia in the Europa League knockouts. His away record mirrored the team’s however, and it’s what stopped his season being a great one. Away from the Emirates, none of the English grounds he scored in that season are still Premier League grounds.

22. Per Mertesacker - 2013/14

Statistical highlights: 41/55 tackles, 59 interceptions and 248 clearances in 35 (52.5) 90s. 

In the entire Emirates era, Arsenal have arguably only had one quality, reliable centre back pairing; Per Mertsacker and Laurent Koscielny. In no season was the partnership more important than in 2013/14. Arsenal famously had a handful of horrendous big away games that season, which overshadowed the fact that for the most part, Arsenal were extremely solid defensively that season. Koscielny was and has been the more celebrated of the pair, fairly I believe, but Mertesacker’s contribution shouldn’t be underestimated. His more sedated approach suited Koscielny’s more aggressive nature, and he provided the height to better deal with balls into the box. He was also tasked with more build up responsibilities of the two. 

21. Alexander Hleb - 2007/08

Statistical highlights: 2 (4) NPG & 7 (11) assists in 27 (36.7) 90s. 

Arguably no player on this list was a more divisive figure at the club than Alexander Hleb. For some, he is a cult hero, a player whose qualities best epitome Arsenal players. Someone who helped others play better and was central to the Wengerball style of play. For others his mediocre output was a sign he wasn’t good enough. There are people who have made countless compilations of Hleb’s old performances and relished over his pre-assist stats - the stat might even have been invented for him - and equally, there have been deceased Arsenal fans whose dislike for the player has been cast in stone. Regardless, 2007/08 was the peak of Hleb’s career, where he shone in a team that challenged the eventual Champions League winners for the title. A superb dribbler and decision maker, his ability to retain and progress the ball helped Cesc Fabregas reach new attacking heights, and saw Barcelona sign him in Pep Guardiola’s first summer.

20. Bacary Sagna - 2010/11

Statistical highlights: 3 assists, 67/75 tackles, 62 interceptions & 141 clearances in  33 (42.3) 90s.

Like some of the other defensive players on this list, identifying a best season for Bacary Sagna wasn’t easy. He wasn’t a flashy player who had brilliant and terrible moments, his strength was his consistency. Sagna wasn’t Arsenal’s greatest fullback from an attacking point of view - though he was capable of contributing - but that wasn’t his role in the side. With a more up and down fullback in Gael Clichy on the other flank, and right sided attacker in Theo Walcott who was more wide striker than wide midfielder, Sagna had a considerable defensive workload that he rarely failed to handle. His aerial abilities were also important on set pieces and he was often the target of Szczesny’s goal kicks this season. 

19. Nacho Monreal - 2015/16

Statistical highlights: 3 (4) assists, 79/109 tackles, 106 interceptions, 114 clearances in 36 (43.7) 90s.

While in many ways, Nacho Monreal was similar to Sagna, a fullback known primarily for their defensive work, he had more peaks and troughs throughout his Arsenal career. He made a strong start after his move in January of 12/13, but endured some difficulties after that. It wasn’t until the second half of 14/15 where he established himself as one of Arsenal’s best defenders. He carried that form into 2015/16 with a series of imperious displays, reading the game brilliantly and being a significant upgrade in possession on what Kieran Gibbs had previously been offering at LB. 

18. Mikel Arteta - 2011/12

Statistical highlights: 6 NPG, 2 assists, 91% pass accuracy, 72/105 tackles & 55 interceptions in 27.5 (35.7) 90s.

I have a lot of affinity for Mikel Arteta’s second season at Arsenal, but in the end I went with his first as his standout season. With Arsenal in a potential crisis at the start of the 2011/12 season, Arteta’s arrival brought the much needed stability that allowed Robin van Persie’s attacking brilliance to not go to waste. While many viewed his arrival as a like for like replacement for the creative brilliance of Cesc Fabregas, Arteta instead filled the role of all-round midfield general. With Jack Wilshere also missing the season, and Alex Song taking up fewer of his defensive responsibilities, Arteta had to fulfil multiple responsibilities, and he did all of them to a high level. His almost immediate take up of a leadership role in the dressing room was also crucial, the extent to which probably wouldn’t be fully appreciated until he became manager over seven years alter.

17. Mesut Özil - 2017/18

Statistical highlights: 4 (5) NPG, 8 (12) assists, 87% pass accuracy & 84 chances created in 24 (32.8) 90s. 

I expect this to be possibly the most controversial entry on the list but I consider 2017/18 to be Özil’s second best season for Arsenal. And anything close to peak Özil is worthy of a place fairly high up on the list. While 2017/18 wasn’t ultimately a good season for Arsenal, it doesn’t mean there weren’t periods of good football or strong individuals seasons. Arsenal were an attacking force at home in 2017/18 and also dominated the Europa League knockouts until wasteful finishing and a defensive mistake cost them against Atletico. Özil was a significant part of both those things. Contrary to popular perception he did not experience a significant drop in form after agreeing a new contract. In fact with the exception of the League Cup final and Atletico Madrid away, he produced good performance in almost every game he stepped on the pitch for from February to May. I made the case for his 17/18 season in far more detail on the site previously: Mesut Özil: Beyond the Narrative — Arsenal Vision Post Match Podcast

16. Samir Nasri - 2010/11

Statistical highlights: 9 (12) NPG, 1 (4) assists, 88% pass accuracy, 61/117 dribbles & 60 chances created in 26.6 (38) 90s. 

In some ways, Samir Nasri was a better version of Alex Hleb. An attacking midfielder who was easy on the eye, good on the dribble had a final pass, but also divided fans, and was never able to consistently produce the kind of output needed to be considered a truly world class player. 10/11 was his peak in an Arsenal shirt. In the autumn, when Robin van Persie and Cesc Fabregas both missed significant game time, it was Nasri who stepped up and carried the team, scoring a glut of goals and playing at a level not many Arsenal players have reached. The trouble with Nasri is it never lasted. From the Fulham game in early December onwards, he got only two goals along with no assists in the league, and that stops him breaking into he top 15.

15. Aaron Ramsey - 2017/18

Statistical highlights: 7 (11) NPG, 8 (9) assists, 85% pass accuracy & 29/36 dribbles in 20.5 (27.4) 90s. 

While the performance levels of Özil in 2017/18 might up for debate, the quality that Aaron Ramsey displayed throughout the season should be crystal clear. Amid the chaos of the season, the Welshman produced the second best season of his 11 year Arsenal career. Ramsey essentially had two separate seasons, one before December (when he tore his hamstring) playing in a 3-4-2-1 in the league, and another in 2018 playing in a 4-2-3-1 mostly in the Europa League. Both systems helped get the most out of him. The three at the back shape allowed for an extra central player to cover for his marauding runs, while the 4-2-3-1 surrounded him with highly technical attacking midfielders. Playing mostly once a week all season also allowed him to have one of his healthiest campaigns since 2013. The result was 13 goals and 9 assists in just 27 90s playing almost exclusively from deep in midfield. 

14. Jack Wilshere - 2010/11

Statistical highlights: 1 (2) NPG, 3 (9) assists, 86% pass accuracy & 61/91 dribbles in 29.5 (42.4) 90s.

Given the problems that would plague the rest of Jack Wilshere’s career, it shouldn’t be forgotten what an elite level talent he was. It’s almost cruel to think that the standout season of his career came in his first full campaign, aged just 18 and 19. The qualities he displayed in that season where that of a natural born Arsenal player. His passing, spatial awareness, press-resistance and ability to drive forward and play 1-2s helped Arsenal produce some of their most aesthetic football ever in 2010/11. The peak was of course his performance against Barcelona, where his bravery and willingness to receive the ball, combined with his awareness and ability to take it on the turn, helped Arsenal turn the tie against possibly the greatest club team of all time. 

13. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang - 2019/20

Statistical highlights: 16 (19) NPG, 1 (1) assist in 25.6 (30.1) 90s. 

In terms of output per 90 minutes, there have actually been many better Arsenal seasons than Aubameyang’s 2019/20. His output in the league roughly translates to a goal or assist in two of every three games, which isn’t even as good as the Ramsey 17/18 season we just looked at. But this hasn’t been a typical Arsenal season. It’s seen their most tepid attacking displays in any campaign of the Emirates era, where the only creative player to perform at a high level has been the 18-year-old playing at left back. And amongst this, Aubameyang has managed to stay afloat as a goal scoring extraordinaire. He currently has the most non-penalty goals in the Premier League. Of those 16 only three didn’t come in games Arsenal drew or won by a solitary goal, and two of those three were the opening goal in a game. Arsenal sit 9th thanks to Aubameyang. Surprisingly that’s a compliment not a criticism. 

12. Theo Walcott - 2012/13 

Statistical highlights: 14 NPG & 10 assists.

It goes somewhat under the radar - to the extent that calling it underrated has actually become something of a meme in sections of the Arsenal twittersphere - that Theo Walcott’s 2012/13 season is one of the most productive wide forward seasons by a Premier League player. A combination of factors - injuries, contract disputes, wanting to play striker - meant he only played 25 90s, but he still managed to produce 14 goals and 10 assists, only one goal and assist fewer than Gareth Bale, who won PFA Player of the Year that season. A year before his tragic ACL injury, this was Walcott at his peak; as fast as ever, but also stronger, and more refined in his movement, decision making and technique. If he’d started 30+ games on the right that season, he would’ve had a strong claim to breaking into the top ten on this list. 

11. Santi Cazorla - 2012/13 

Statistical highlights: 12 NPG, 11 assists, 97 chances created, 87% pass accuracy & 86/131 dribbles in 36.8 90s.

With Robin van Persie heading for the exit door in 2012, just a year after Cesc Fabregas and Santi Nasri, Arsenal were in desperate need of a new star player, and in cash strapped Malaga, they found one at discount price. One of La Liga’s best players for years, Cazorla was a coup at under £20m, and quickly established himself as Arsenal’s new best player. 12/13 was a season of equity for the Gunners. van Persie’s 30 league goals were replaced by four players reaching double figures. But Cazorla was the best among them. He was Arsenal’s new dictator in the final third, either as a number 10 or just off the left, making use of his trademark two-footedness and low centre of gravity, all while producing 12 goals and 11 assists. 

10. Santi Cazorla - 2014/15 

Statistical highlights: 1 NPG, 11 assists, 78 chances created, 89% pass accuracy & 87/121 dribbles in 33.2 90s. 

While it’s hard to separate these two Cazorla seasons on a quality level, unlike, say, Robin van Persie’s 10/11 and 11/12 seasons, these two are actually rather different on a stylistic and tactical level. After Mesut Özil’s arrival in 2013, Cazorla’s importance in the attacking trio declined. It’s possible that this also coincided with a natural physical decline that would’ve seen his role need to change anyway, but it led to a less spectacular 13/14 from the little Spaniard. This continued into a reasonably slow start in 14/15, but when Özil got injured, Cazorla was rejuvenated as a genuine number 10. This led to the growing realisation that his qualities, at least aged 30, were more that of a midfielder than forward. And when Özil returned in January, Cazorla’s new position felt a natural fit. Central midfield. 

An incredibly gifted technician with brilliant close control, but also not the quickest over long distances, a deeper role suited Santi perfectly. Here he could evade pressure, dictate from deep and progress the ball to the likes of Özil and Alexis Sanchez who were able to do the damage in the final. While in 13/14 it felt like a good performance from Cazorla or Özil came at the expense of the other, from 14/15 onwards they combined brilliantly, with Cazorla to Özil being the most prominent pass combination in the league. He was able to maintain his creativity as well. From his deeper position he still produced nine assists from open play in the league. 

9. Emmanuel Adebayor - 2007/08

Statistical highlights: 21 (27) NPG and 4 assists in 32.5 (41.1) 90s.

When, at the start, I mentioned that the standout season of good players was perhaps more interesting than a typical season from world class players, Emmanuel Adebayor’s 07/08 campaign is perhaps the best example. Adebayor had a good career of course, but 07/08 stands out amongst the rest of the pack. It came somewhat out of the blue as well. Having never reached 10 goals in a league season before, he hit 24 in 07/08 (3 of which were pens). 

At his best Adebayor was the complete package, a threat on crosses and on balls in behind. His partnership with Cesc Fabregas, who we’ll touch on shortly, was arguably one of the most iconic striker-playmaker partnerships in Arsenal history. Many of the Spaniards best ever Arsenal assists were chipped through balls onto the chest of Adebayor. What stops Adebayor being even higher in this list is that his was a streaky season. He went on goal gluts but also droughts. A seven game drought from the Birmingham game onwards (where Eduardo broke his leg), only one of which Arsenal won, proved costly in the title race. A quarter of his league goals also came against arguably the worst side in Premier League history. Still, it remains one of the best Arsenal striker seasons in the post-Henry era. 

8. Laurent Koscielny - 2013/14

Statistical highlights: 2 NPG, 94% pass accuracy, 54/65 tackles, 89 interceptions & 234 clearances in 30.5 (44.2) 90s

First off a disclaimer. I’m not sure whether 13/14 was Koscielny’s best season. I think any of that, 14/15 and 15/16 are contenders. 13/14 is definitely his most celebrated, but I think that might be a case of circumstance. The end of 12/13 was when he established himself for good in the Arsenal team, meaning 13/14 was the season when Arsenal fans realised they had a, at least borderline, world class defender in their ranks. The two seasons after that were just more of the same, so don’t standout the same way. 13/14 was also probably simply a more celebrated Arsenal season overall. 

Nonetheless, at least one of them deserves to be celebrated, because at his peak, Koscielny was one of the finest defenders in the league. He combined great athleticism with a fantastic reading of the game, making him regularly a league leader in interceptions. His ability to perfectly time his step outs when defending in a high line and his knack for reading and intercepting cut backs and then calmly playing his way out of trouble were stand out plays of his. His one weakness was his defending of aerial balls. He wasn’t especially tall for a centre back, and his reading of aerial crosses was sometimes surprisingly poor considering how well he read crosses on the ground. But that’s also why his partnership with Per Mertesacker was so successful. In no season did they play as regularly together as 13/14, and that’s another reason Koscielny’s 13/14 season stands out. His brave equaliser in the FA Cup final also helps. 

7. Alexis Sanchez - 2014/15

Statistical highlights: 16 (25) NPG, 8 (13) assists, 82 chances created & 115/196 dribbles in 32.8 (48) 90s.

When Alexis Sanchez was bought in the summer of 2014, it felt like a landmark moment for the Arsenal rebuild. For the second year in a row, Arsenal had bought a prominent attacker from one of the two Spanish giants in the prime of his career. What more, he filled a gaping hole in the team. Arsenal in 13/14 had had many technical attacking midfielders, but with Theo Walcott missing nearly all of the campaign, were desperately short on cutting edge. 

While his arrival failed to bring about a new golden era for the club, it wasn’t down to a failure in Alexis’ performances, and his first season was close to being his best. The first half of Arsenal’s season was undermined by a combination of injuries and some unfortunate results, but Alexis’ performances as the main man stood out. He was the team’s best scorer, creator and most dangerous dribbler. Alexis’ individual contribution waned in the second half of the season, despite the team growing in strength, but he still stepped up with two gaols in the FA Cup semi final and assisted and scored the first two goals in the final. His 25 NPG in all comps has only been topped by a player in two seasons in the Emirates era, one of which would be by himself. 

6. Cesc Fabregas - 2007/08 

Statistical highlights: 7 (13) NPG & assists in 31.8 (43.2) 90s.

The summer of 2007 was a scary time for Arsenal fans. With Thierry Henry departing the club, Arsenal no longer had any genuine superstars in the team, and were staggeringly short of experience. Some feared this would lead to an imminent decline, or at least a prolonged period of not challenging for the big trophies. What followed instead was the closest Arsenal have come to winning a Premier League title in the entire Emirates era. Part of the reason for that was the stepping up of Emanuel Adebayor, as mentioned previously. The main reason, however, was the progression of Cesc Fabregas, who, tasked with being the main man for the first time in his career, produced one of his best seasons aged just 20 years old.

The start of the season saw a huge goal glut for Cesc. By the beginning of November he’d already more than doubled his previous best campaign with 11 in all comps. While the goals dried up after that, he was still the league’s best creator and Arsenal’s main passer in midfield; and he would score the season’s most famous goal in March as Arsenal won 2-0 in Milan. While he would go on to arguably hit even greater heights later in his Arsenal career, in this campaign he was still playing in a midfield two. That makes his 24 direct goal contributions without pens, which, for example, surpasses any figure by Steven Gerrard in his Premier League career, even more extraordinary. 

5. Aaron Ramsey - 2013/14

Statistical highlights: 10 (16) NPG, 8 (9) assists 32 chances created & 77/114 tackles in 19.6 (30.3) 90s

Even at the end of 2012/13, when Aaron Ramsey had become an important role player in a more resilient Arsenal team, no one could have expected the explosion that would occur the following term. To put simply, judged purely on any given player’s time on the pitch, there have been very few midfield seasons as influential as Ramsey’s 13/14 campaign in the recent history of European football. 

Ramsey was a superstar in all phases of midfield play. In all comps he scored 16 goals, all from open play, in just 30 90s. Such a scoring rate was more prolific than what Olivier Giroud did that season, and was only bettered by Lukas Podolski and and Theo Walcott, who played far more limited minutes. He also created roughly one big chance every two games in the league, the best rate amongst a team featuring Özil, Cazorla, Rosicky and Wilshere. He led Arsenal with nearly four tackles per 90, and he played the fourth most passes per 90 in the entire league, behind only Arteta at Arsenal. He was a dominate figure defensively, in build up, creatively and in front of goal.

The only problem is that period of on pitch domination was limited. A thigh injury on boxing day that experienced multiple set backs meant he played only half of Arsenal’s Premier League minutes. One of the greatest August to Decembers in Premier League history didn’t even end up in the PFA Team of the Year because of it. But Ramsey did return in time to score the winner in the FA Cup Final, and maybe that should place him above at least the season next on this list, though that player reached his own himalayan heights. 

4. Cesc Fabregas - 2009/10

Statistical highlights: 12 (13) NPG, 13 (17) assists, 95 chances created, 51/81 dribbles & 62/90 tackles in 24.4 (33.2) 90s. 

Throughout his career Cesc Fabregas has played in a variety of roles and positions. Despite having a pretty straightforward skillset he’s played everywhere from deep plying playmaker to centre forward. But without a doubt, no iteration was better than the number 10 version that played for Arsenal in 2009/10. It was in 07/08 that Fabregas added the ability to drive forward and score goals to his repertoire of passing and creativity, but even then his evolution into the complete attacker in 09/10 was somewhat unexpected. His was a creative season every bit as good as Mesut Özil’s in 15/16; yet he was also Arsenal’s top scorer and someone who was capable of - excuse the rare mention of this cliche - grabbing the game by the scruff of the neck, driving the team forward and deciding matches in Arsenal’s favour. His substitute cameo against Aston Villa - one of the most iconic performance of the Emirates era - was the epitome of this. He was capable of, for want of a better term, heroball. Heroball that worked. 

The numbers are staggering. Even accounting for Fabregas being on penalty duties for most of the season, he still produced more than one goal and assist per 90 minutes. He completed 3.9 key passes per 90 (by far the best figure in the league) and played 73 passes per 90 (only slightly behind Scholes in all players in the league). His individual brilliance was reflected in the team as well. Despite Robin van Persie missing most of the season with an ankle injury, meaning the Gunners played without a recognised centre forward for parts of the season, they still scored 83 goals, their third best tally in the Premier League era.

Just like Aaron Ramsey in 13/14, however, the ceiling of his season is capped by the injury issues he had that limited his appearances. He missed more than a third of Arsenal’s league minutes, and this prevented the team achieving more. In the 10 league games Fabregas and van Persie started together, Arsenal scored 35 goals. Alas, he and van Persie’s minutes combined that season only just passed the amount of minutes in a league season. In typical Emirates era Arsenal fashion, with better health they could’ve achieved even greater things. What they did anyway was still pretty remarkable. 

3. Mesut Özil - 2015/16 

Statistical highlights: 6 (8) NPG, 19 (20) assists, 86% pass accuracy & 146 chances created, an all time PL record, in 33.9 (43.8) 90s.

For Arsenal, 2015/16 was a season that offered so much hope and expectation. A hope and expectation that was ultimately met with complete disappointment. For whatever reasons, the majority of key players in one of Arsenal’s most talented ever squads failed to impact the season to the extent they would’ve hoped. Alexis Sanchez missed a significant chunk of the season through injury, and either side of that didn’t score in the number of games he usually did. Theo Walcott and Aaron Ramsey were extremely wasteful in front of goal. Olivier Giroud started strongly but his season is ultimately remembered for the goal drought that occurred in the period where the title charge slipped away. Santi Cazorla was on course for a strong season before his injury nightmare began. And Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain failed to make the leap many were predicting of him before the season. 

All that left Mesut Özil, who managed to achieve the most influential and consistent season of his Arsenal career, and possibly his career as a whole. Statistically it holds claim to being the greatest creative season in Premier League history. His 146 chances created is a league record, and his 19 assists has only been bettered once, by Thierry Henry in 2002/03. 

Some have accused Özil of dropping off in the business end of the season but his drop in assists owes as much to the volatile nature of the stat as it did any drop in his creativity. It’s also worth noting that it was his free kick that was headed in by Danny Welbeck against Leicester, and he scored and assisted in the 3-2 defeat at Old Trafford. Those were Arsenal’s two biggest moments in the title challenge, and Özil produced moments in both of them. Had Arsenal been capable putting on a more coherent display in the latter, it might have become one of, if not the, defining moment of his career. But such is the life of the Emirates era Arsenal superstar. Özil’s 15/16 was resigned to individual achievement. 

2. Alexis Sanchez - 2016/17

Statistical highlights: 22 (28) NPG, 10 (17) assists, 78 chances created & 109/161 dribbles in (47) 90s. 

After winning the Copa América Centenario as the tournament’s best player, Alexis Sanchez returned early to Arsenal in 16/17 in a new role. With Olivier Giroud not yet back to full speed after the Euros, Alexis started the season as the centre forward. Although not the Chilean’s personal position of choice, he would eventually begin to flourish in the role, and would stay there throughout the first half of the season. Alexis would be the team’s biggest goal threat, as his 28 NPG in all comps proved, but his interpretation of the role was that of a genuine false nine. He dropped deep to receive the ball and with willing runners in Mesut Özil and Theo Walcott, his full creative capabilities were unleashed as well. In total he finished with 28 NPG and 17 assists in all comps, the best all comps combination of the two in any Emirates era season.

Some might resent the idea of a season ranking so highly on the list when Arsenal finished fifth that year. But the Gunners’ Champions League streak didn’t snap because of Alexis’ performances. Arsenal’s 77 goals scored in the league that season is the club’s fifth best tally in the PL era, only bettered by seasons in the 2000s. What more, Arsenal finished the season with 75 points, a record for a club outside the top four, and were at a much greater pace for the majority of the season. Arsenal’s undoing was a period of wretched results in February and March. And even there, it was Alexis who scored the opening goal in defeat at West Brom, and assisted what could’ve been comeback instigating goals against Watford and at Anfield. 

What more, Alexis returned to peak form after Arsenal’s late switch to a 3-4-2-1, operating in something of a hybrid inside forward and number 10 role. His performances couldn’t quite get Arsenal into the top four at the last, but he did score in both 2-1 wins against Manchester City and Chelsea at Wembley. A decisive contribution for silverware that gets him above the previous two entries in this rank. 

1. Robin van Persie - 2011/12 

Statistical highlights: 28 (32) NPG, 10 (10) assists, 92 chances created (4th most in the PL) & 42/66 dribbles in 37 (45.5) 90s. Directly involved in 53% of Arsenal’s PL goals. 

Despite some tough competition from some world class players in their peak, choosing the best individual season from the Emirates era was still a relatively straightforward task. Fresh off losing his two best creative teammates the previous summer, and despite an early season crisis of results, Robin van Persie led Arsenal to a scarcely credible third place finish in the league in 2011/12, and by doing so produced one of the very best seasons in the history of the Premier League. His 28 NPG in the league was six more than any other Arsenal season in the Emirates era, and a figure that has only been bettered in three Premier League seasons. His goals also came in big matches and key moments. A hat-trick at Stamford Bridge, an equaliser and winner at Anfield, the equaliser in the 5-2 against Tottenham, a winner against Everton, goals in both fixtures against United (albeit in defeats), three goals in two games against Dortmund. 

All that would’ve made for an extraordinary season from a pure goal scorer, but van Persie was so much more. He was a technical link up player first and foremost, who learned the art of poaching later. 11/12 saw his greatest combination of the two. His 92 chances created were the fourth most in the league, only marginally behind pure creators and passers in Silva, Mata and Modric. In total he provided ten assists in the league, three of which were to Theo Walcott who he combined with excellently all season. 

A player with the movement and finishing to score a high quantity of goals, but one also capable of creating for himself, his teammates and producing the spectacular, to the extent he wasn’t reliant on world class service to win matches. Add in the durability that he had so frustratingly lacked throughout his Arsenal career until that point, and RvP 11/12 was the perfect player to build a team around. For many, van Persie’s 2012 move to United, and subsequent success with them, tainted his Arsenal career. But that can’t take away from the fact his last 18 months at the club are the highest level of football we’ve seen from a player at the Emirates Stadium.

Unai Emery’s Time Is Up

Unai Emery has proven he is not capable of reviving Arsenal. It is time for the club to begin the process of finding someone who can. 

In Arsene Wenger’s final few years as Arsenal manager, it became hard to keep track of the number of matches that felt like a new nadir; a blow that couldn’t be recovered from. There were the multiple bloated defeats to big teams away from home, that cumulated in the 10-2 aggregate defeat to Bayern Munich, still Arsenal’s most recent participation in the Champions League. Then in the final couple of seasons there were several pathetic defeats away from home to mid-table and relegation battling teams. A 3-1 at West Brom in March 2017. A 3-0 at Palace a month later. A 2-1 and 3-1 at Bournemouth and Swansea in January 2018. The 2-1 in Brighton that March. 

For some Arsenal’s defeat to Sheffield United on Monday will be that nadir with Unai Emery. For others it would’ve been the Europa League final against Chelsea, or perhaps the atrocious second half at Watford in September. And for some, that match will still be to come. For myself, however, things are a bit different. Throughout Emery’s tenure there hasn’t been a moment of breaking point, where it felt like time. Yet it is nonetheless just as clear as it was in March 2018, perhaps even more so, that Arsenal’s current manager is not the person to take the team forward in the foreseeable future. 

Of course there have been some real low points. More problematic for Emery, however, is less the depths of the nadirs and more that, after 70 games in charge, it’s very hard to find any bright sparks or reasons for optimism when it comes to his management. For more than 14 months Arsenal have been consistently playing mediocre football under their current head coach. The particularly severe problems of the final two Wenger seasons - Arsenal’s defending and away performances - haven’t been improved in the slightest, and it’s come alongside a decline in their attacking cohesion and authority in possession. 

In total Emery has had 47 Premier League games and if you were to count the number of genuinely convincing performances you’d struggle to reach double figures. There haven’t been any yet this season, and they were sparse enough last term. The wins at home against Tottenham and Chelsea were the clear highs and Arsenal were unlucky to only draw away at Tottenham in what was their most accomplished performance away to a big six team in years. A 1-1 draw vs Liverpool was a fine showing against a great team. There was a fantastic second half at home to Leicester and a great first half at home to Southampton. Fulham were twice dispatched, and Bournemouth were comfortably put away at home. 

Arsenal’s other league wins have usually fallen into one of two categories. Either Arsenal struggle to control or breakdown a weak team and have to battle for a scrappy win - Huddersfield and Cardiff twice last season, Bournemouth and Aston Villa at home this season, among many examples. Or Arsenal have played their opponents about even, and have come out on top through being more clinical with their chances, rather than any dominance in general play - Everton, Watford and Manchester United at home last season were the clearest examples. 

There have been some baffling tactical decisions, like going with a diamond at Anfield when Liverpool do so much of their attacking through their fullbacks. Emery has spoken about making Arsenal a chameleon team tactically, an idea that isn’t without its merits. In practice, however, it has been difficult to grasp the logic behind Emery’s chopping and changing. The number of half time substitutions (25 in the league) have added to the sense that Emery is fumbling in the dark for tactics and combinations that work, rather than executing them with a clear thought process. 

For many, their biggest gripe with Emery is his loyalty to certain players, or his lack of trust in others. His unwillingness to use Torreira as a base midfielder, where he played for Sampdoria and still does for Uruguay, and his preference for the Xhaka and Guendouzi pivot instead, is just one example in this regard. 

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In truth, these kind of complaints could go for a while, and everyone has their own; but these micro tactical and selection issues people have with Emery are minor compared to the major macro issues of his time at Arsenal so far.

There have essentially been three major failings of Emery as a coach in his tenure so far. The first of those has been his inability to build a coherent attack. Quickly after he took over it became apparent that Arsenal, either through deliberate design or simply an inability, weren’t sustaining pressure in the final third as much as they did under Wenger. For a while this was somewhat counter balanced by the fact Arsenal had slightly improved in their bringing the ball out from the back in a more structured and precise manner. [I wrote more last November about how Wenger wanted to get the ball up the pitch as quickly as possible, while Emery liked to focus on the earlier phases]. This meant the Gunners were able to score a few very well worked goals that started from the centre backs or goalkeeper. As time wore on, however, the attacking fluidity and final third combinations that were a constant trademark of the Wenger years continued to deteriorate. Having a better system to get the ball to the midfielders or fullbacks up the pitch is useless if you don’t know what to do with it in the final third. 

This has been exasperated by the fact Emery hasn’t been able to implement many of his own attacking automatisms or player partnerships that influence how the team plays. In the early months there was more focus on fullback overlaps and cutbacks, and in the winter of last season Alex Iwobi built a partnership with Sead Kolasinac that bore some fruit until the former’s sale. Admittedly it’s early days, but there aren’t yet many signs of attacking combinations involving the new faces in Arsenal’s midfield and attack. Nicolas Pépé and Bukayo Saka have created chances for Aubameyang, which almost goes without saying, but it’s not clear which players are likely to find their runs, or play 1-2s with them. The returning fullbacks, Kieren Tierney and Hector Bellerin probably have the most potential to strike up partnerships with them, but given what we’ve seen of Emery’s Arsenal so far, it would be naive to genuinely expect it. 

Of course Arsenal still score goals and are a better attacking team than they are a defensive one. But none of that is a surprise considering the attacking firepower they have. Arsenal’s four record signings are all attacking players in the current squad. Being able to score and outgun teams with their attack should be the bare minimum of the Gunners’ expectations. 

Related to the inability to sustain attacks comes the second major failing of Emery’s reign; Arsenal simply don’t control or dominate games as much you’d expect when they play theoretically inferior opposition. Arsenal games tend to either be open and like basketball matches - end to end with each team taking it in turn to attack - or turgid affairs with few shots or quality attacking moves - Monday’s loss in Sheffield, a prime example of the latter. Arsenal don’t suffocate teams with dominate possession, nor do they press with much intensity to win the ball. It’s a bad combo. In his first press conference as manager, the Spaniard claimed he wanted Arsenal to be “protagonists in possession and the pressing” but this plainly hasn’t been carried out. 

One attempt at measuring pressing is PPDA which divides the number of passes the opposition are able to make in their own half, by the number of defensive actions a team makes. Generally the lower the figure, the more successful a side was in disrupting their opponents possession through pressing, while a higher figure suggests a more passive approach. Last season in the Premier League Man City had the lowest figure, while Bournemouth had the highest. Rather than becoming more intense and coherent, Arsenal’s PPDA has slightly increased since Emery took over, which implies Arsenal are more content to allow opposition teams to keep the ball away from goal. The trend is moving further towards that as well, the away games to Liverpool and Watford this season represent two of the three highest PPDA figures for single Arsenal matches since 14/15 begun. 

This goes with what The Athletic reported last month, with James McNicholas claiming that any focus on pressing in training didn’t last beyond the very early stages of Emery’s reign. 

https://theathletic.com/1216532/2019/09/17/emery-is-unloved-and-under-threat-it-may-be-time-for-the-next-man/ (to sign up use theathletic.com/arsenalvision)

There are valid reasons to play a more passive defensive game, and to look to attack with speed rather than play keep ball when you get it. In fact, it seems likely that Emery came to this conclusion and believes it to be the best way for Arsenal to play. But to say Arsenal’s tactics haven’t worked would be an understatement. Since Emery took over Arsenal have faced 58 more shots than they’ve taken in league play. This is practically unheard of for top four contenders. For context, in the same period Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea have shot differentials of +570, +324 and +329 respectively, while Arsenal in 17/18 (just 38 games, not 47) had a positive differential of 172. While it’s true the quality of Arsenal’s shots taken are higher than the quality of shots they allow, it’s not by a significant enough margin to override such a terrible differential.  

I slipped in a graphic earlier while talking about the attack under Emery. It showed the number of deep pass completions (defined as passes that end up fewer than 20 yards from goal) the Gunners have made on average in the last few Premier League seasons. Not surprisingly there’s a slump that occurs not long after Emery takes over. Arsenal simply complete fewer passes into the last part of the pitch now than they did at any point under Wenger in the last few seasons. The trend is also the opposite in defence. Arsenal are conceding more passes per match into deep zones than under Wenger. Quite simply, since Emery’s arrival, Arsenal fans have been seeing less action in the opposition box and more action in their own than they used to. 

What makes things more frustrating is that the players Emery selects could feasibly be more suited to another style. Granit Xhaka is a flawed player, but he is not without his qualities. He is a well above average passer in possession, and can be a significant plus to a side playing a possession game, as he has been for Arsenal on occasions in the past. What he clearly lacks is the defensive intelligence and mobility to be a great screener of the back line out of possession. This makes Emery’s method of trying to see out games through control without the ball particularly bizarre. There’s ample evidence showing it doesn’t work and the players are ill-suited to it. 

This is all connected to the third major problem under Emery; Arsenal’s continued defensive failings. People could look past less cohesion in attack, less dominance through possession, less aggressive pressing and more conservative team selections if it had helped to solve Arsenal’s three year defensive crisis. Indeed there are those that do defend Emery on the grounds that Wenger’s football and team selections were simply leaving the team too open. But defensively there hasn’t been any improvement since Emery took over.

In the wider media there’s a bit of a myth that Arsenal have always been a bad defensive team in the period since their last league title. But for years Arsenal had been exactly what you’d expect from the third or fourth best team in the league defensively. In 12/13 they conceded the second fewest goals in the league. In 13/14 they conceded 41, but 20 of those were in four games. In the 34 games that weren’t away to top five teams, they conceded only 21 goals, a stellar defensive performance. In 15/16 they had the lowest xG against in the Premier League, and would’ve competed harder for the title had Petr Cech not shown a surprising weakness to long shots at his near post that season. 

Arsenal’s defence only became truly bad in 16/17, when Arsenal’s xG against was more than 13 goals higher than the previous season. A year later it was even worse, and Arsenal conceded 51 goals, a record for the club in the Premier League era. In Emery’s first season they repeated the trick, matching the 51 goals conceded of the previous season. This was despite Emery getting new signings in goal, at centre back, and in defensive midfield. Leno also did his job well, and was arguably one of Arsenal’s three outstanding players last season alongside the two strikers. Arsenal actually over performed their xG allowed by more than six goals while conceding 51. This season it’s not been better. If they continue to ship chances at their current rate, Arsenal are likely to end the season conceding 58 goals in the league. In short, the defence has deteriorated so much, that Arsenal are conceding chances at a rate of 25 goals a season more than they were just three and a half years ago. 

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There are those that argue the task of replacing Wenger was never going to be a quick and easy task, and that with more time and investment, Emery could form Arsenal into a formidable side. While there is truth in the former statement, at this point there just isn’t sufficient reason to believe Arsenal will make any significant improvement as a result of Emery’s coaching. The returns of Bellerin and Tierney at fullback could feasibly help Arsenal in all aspects of play. Signing more good players in future transfer windows could help Arsenal get better results - though the results this season show even that is in doubt. But after two pre-seasons and over 15 months of training time to implement his vision and philosophy on the squad, what reason is there to think Emery will eventually coax more out of the players he has so far got little from?

One of the concerns that surrounded Emery before he took over was the type of clubs he’d had most success at. The easy joke, and an unfair one in truth, was that he was a Europa League specialist. The more nuanced criticism was that in his time at Valencia and Sevilla Emery’s success had come from achieving consistently solid results, never from elevating them to a level above their resources. Now obviously doing that is difficult and extremely rare even for good managers. It does, however, stand as a key point to differentiate Emery from someone like Jurgen Klopp - often cited by Arsenal fans as an example of what can happen when you give a manager time - who had a history of lifting a sleeping giant in Borussia Dortmund to title wins and a Champions League final. 

If one were to be particularly harsh of Emery’s time at Arsenal - and it’s not particularly necessary to be so to make a case against him given the realities laid out so far - one could go as far as to suggest Arsenal’s best bits of performance since he took over have actually had the least to do with his coaching. In the early months of his reign, Arsenal usually had sluggish first halves, only to get the result when going more full throttle in the second half. At the time it felt like the players were having more success when throwing caution to the wind and letting their individual quality take over than when trying to implement Emery’s plan. Around March last season Emery went away from his favoured rigid double pivot and finally deployed Aaron Ramsey in a deeper position. Ramsey added vertically to the midfield and it resulted in one of Arsenal’s best runs of the season with wins over Manchester United and Napoli, until Ramsey’s hamstring injury contributed to the season being derailed. This season Arsenal’s best performances have all come with the second string lineups in the Europa League and League Cup, using players who have had fewer matches and training sessions with Emery than the first team regulars. 

Now that is a harsh outlook, and is at best a possibility unlike the earlier criticisms which are all but factual. It does, however, support the idea that Arsenal’s squad isn’t terrible, and that it’s not unreasonable to think their league struggles are down to something other than player quality. 

This season’s Europa League performances also bring relevance to the one shinning light for Arsenal football club at the moment. The Gunners have a stack of young players who have looked promising in the minutes given. This is actually a rare area Emery probably has to be given credit, given he could’ve quite easily opted for more experienced starters than the likes of Saka and Joe Willock, or at least fought harder to not lose either of Alex Iwobi and Henrikh Mkhitaryan from his squad. This shows that the long term future doesn’t have to be doom and gloom. It does, however, mean the next stage in Arsenal’s development is crucial. Which makes having a head coach that can maximise attackers and possibility elevate a team beyond the sum of its parts sooner rather than later even more of a priority.

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It should go without saying that none of this is a personal crusade against the man. Regardless of his time at Arsenal Emery has had a very successful managerial career. As Alex Kirkland said on a recent Arsecast, Emery would have no problem finding another job in La Liga and would even be one of the main candidates for next Spain manager. It’s entirely possible his problems at Arsenal have predominantly been an issue of communication. Or perhaps his footballing ideas just don’t gel with this crop of players.

For over 20 years Arsenal fans got to bask in a reality few fans do; one of managerial security. Now they are in the pack with the rest of the world, where managerial turnover is frequent. Many appointments don’t go the way they were initially hoped. Unai Emery’s at Arsenal is one such example. The reality of modern club setups is that they don’t have to be defined by the manager. Much of Arsenal’s backroom changes in the last two years has been for this exact reason, to hold some level of continuity at club level from one managerial appointment to the next. 

During the international break David Ornstein confirmed that Arsenal have a clause in Unai Emery’s contract where they can get out of the third year without having to make a pay off. That they should do it if the time arrives is at this point a given. The Arsenal board have the next seven months to start preparing for that situation, and to ponder whether paying the moderate financial sum required to end his tenure before then is worth it. If it comes down to top four or no top four, and the huge financial benefits that come with it. Well, you do the maths. 

Nicolas Pépé - Early Review

Nicolas Pépé - Early Review

In recent times, it’s hard to recall a record Arsenal signing who’s early performances have been treated to a quieter and calmer response from the Arsenal fans than Nicolas Pépé. So far there hasn’t been a lot undue hype over his quality and potential future impact; and neither has there been much harsh criticism. Given he arrived for a record fee and has so far only provided a penalty goal and a solitary assist in the league, one might have expected the Arsenal fanbase to have voiced some concerns or criticism, especially since the club’s start to the season hasn’t been particularly convincing overall. 

In part, the measured response is probably due to the to the wealth of other narratives surrounding Arsenal’s start to the season. The continued defensive struggles and failure to assert much control over matches. The fantastic start to the season from Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and the continued emergence of youngsters like Joe Willock, Bukayo Saka and Reis Nelson. Plus Arsenal fans are more accustomed to big forward signings than they used to be. Pépé is the fourth attacker in Arsenal’s current squad who has held the title of club record signing. Predominantly, however, it’s likely down to the fact that Pépé’s quality is obvious; and that while it hasn’t completely come together for him yet, most are in agreement that it’s only a matter of time before it will. Until then, it’s simply a matter of waiting. But in the meantime, here are some early thoughts and projections on how he might best be utilised this season.

Overall

So far, Pépé has been used in two different ways by Unai Emery. As a genuine wide player in a 4-3-3/4-2-3-1, tasked with progressing the ball and linking with the other forwards, and also as a striker in a 4-4-2 diamond, where he has primarily been used as a counter attack weapon. One can debate the wiseness of using a new signing in more than one position in his first few games for the club, but both roles have highlighted strengths and (over the first few games at least) weaknesses in Pépé’s game. 

Regardless of the role, the Ivorian hasn’t struggled for involvement in Arsenal’s attack. In what has often been a shot shy Arsenal attack under Emery - Arsenal ranked 11th for shots for in the league last season - Pépé is currently taking or assisting close to six shots per game. After six games this season his usage rate - a stat that measures the amount of possessions that end with a particular player, either through a shot or loss of possession - is only surpassed by Alexis Sanchez seasons in the last few years at Arsenal. 

His expected goals and expected assist figures - 0.28 and 0.25 per 90 respectively - are solid rather than spectacular. While his shot and key pass numbers are great, few of either have been big chances, which drags the xG and xA figures down. 

His general play has been mainly very good. The fact that his end product has been his undoing so far is something of a surprise given his impressive goal and assist numbers for Lille over the last two seasons. It hasn’t been simply down to a finishing slump either. There have been times where his weight of final ball has let him down (like in a 2v1 late in the match against Burnley) or he’s worked himself into a good position to attack a defender with a dribble, only for it to come to nothing.  

If he didn’t have a history of good production, this might be a bigger concern. For now Arsenal fans will hope his early indecisiveness is simply a blip, or down to early season rust after a long season and summer tournament, and that with greater integration and fitness it will no longer be an issue. As of now it’s simply been frustrating, because the signs in his general play have so far been very encouraging.

Dribbling and close control

On the evidence of his Arsenal career so far, Pépé’s close control is one of his standout strengths. He is comfortable receiving passes into feet with his back to defenders, and can turn in either direction to get away from his man. While he doesn’t have the low centre of gravity that many great dribblers have, he is able to manipulate the ball in tight spaces without getting dispossessed. 

via Gfycat

The Ivorian is also great at using body feints to deceive defenders and create space for himself. This nutmeg against Burnley went viral, but look for how he also uses a feint to deceive the midfielder on his left which allows him room to pull off the trick. 

With these traits it’s not a surprise that another area he’s shown he excels at is in creating separation from a defender in order to play a pass or get a shot off. It helps that his ability to skip past players on both sides means that even high quality defenders like van Dijk and Robertson have opted to stand off him, giving him an extra bit of space.  

What has so far let him down when dribbling has been his propensity to make sloppy touches when travelling with the ball. While his ball security when receiving and in tight spaces has been quite good, this problem has somewhat contributed to his lack of decisiveness in matches so far. As seen in this example against Liverpool, where he does well to initially get past van Dijk, and is then able to find the separation to get a shot away, only to miss control. 

Passing and possession play 

Pépé has been somewhat of a mirrored Alexis Sanchez with his passing so far. A comment that will either be met with enthusiasm or dread depending on which side of the Chilean’s playmaking debate you fell on. Pépé  likes to cut inside to play passes into the middle or to curve passes to the other flank. When he’s closer to the defensive line or the opposition penalty area, he’s always looking for potential through balls into the centre, or a cross to the back post. Many of his assists for Lille came with this pass, with a runner making an out to in run from the left hand side and finishing. If Aubameyang is to play on the left a lot this season - a scenario that seems likely if Emery uses the big three in attack - this is a potential link up that could cause a lot of damage, particularly on the break. 

via Gfycat

When playing on the right Pépé has shown a willingness to drop deep and offer himself for passes. Last season Arsenal did a lot of their building of play down the left, which worked when the likes of Alex Iwobi played on that flank, but was problematic when Aubameyang was put there. This season, if Aubameyang is to play regularly on the left, Arsenal could benefit from focussing more of their ball progression through the right, since Pépé is much better suited to helping with the build up. It would have the added benefit of allowing Aubameyang to stay high up, and focus his game on making out to in runs when Arsenal have the ball on the right. 

Perhaps the biggest weakness of Pépé’s creative game is the fact he appears quite one footed. Against Villa he was able to beat the left back down the outside a couple of times, but wasn’t able to deliver a threatening ball with his right foot. This is obviously far from a deal breaker for a wide player, but it will limit the type of service he can provide to Aubameyang and Lacazette. 

Off ball play and defending

With his rapid pace - which might rival Aubameyang’s in the Arsenal frontline - and all round attacking play, Pépé will be a big threat on the counter attack, as he has been already this season. Unless the aforementioned issues with his decisiveness persist to the same extent, which I don’t believe they will, he will be involved in many counter attack goals over the course of this season.

This was most evident against Liverpool. In a match where Arsenal were on the back foot most of the time, Pépé was by far Arsenal’s most threatening player, and perhaps the most dangerous forward on the pitch. The one big chance he’s had this season came from a Liverpool corner, where he sprinted from one box to the other, stole the ball from Henderson, beat Robertson on the dribble, only to shoot tamely. He was Arsenal’s main outlet into the channels, where he displayed good hold up play to relieve pressure and almost managed to create a big chance from a long ball downfield from David Luiz. 

What I’m yet to see from him are any enterprising off ball movements against set defences. This isn’t to say it’s something he can’t do at all. It’s just not something he’s visibly showcased in his first few matches for Arsenal. 

It’s hard to judge Pépé’s defensive capabilities, since Emery has shied away from giving him defensive responsibilities in Arsenal’s more challenging fixtures. Away at Liverpool and Watford he was part of a front two, and while against Tottenham the Gunners played a 4-3-3 rather than a diamond, Lacazette was often the player dropping back to help defensively, while Pépé and Aubameyang stayed high up like in the away games. There is likely some causality here, however. The fact Emery is using him that way either suggests he doesn’t trust the Ivorian’s defensive capabilities, or that he considers his counter attack threat too valuable to curtail.

Conclusions 

With Iwobi and Henrikh Mkhitaryan gone, Arsenal’s left flank is likely to either be filled by Aubameyang - a wide striker - or youngsters such as Saka and Nelson. That, along with the fact Mesut Özil looks like he will continue to be a bit part player this season, means the onus on Pépé to be the ball dominant attacker will continue. Pépé has already shown in his early matches for the Gunners that he has the dribbling, creativity and personality to be the fulcrum of an attack. 

Whether he will justify all of his £72m fee, and whether Unai Emery will be the man to get the most out of him are both very much up in the air. What isn’t is that Pépé has the quality and profile to be a valuable asset to Arsenal’s season and long term future. The fruits will likely bear sooner rather than later. 

Scoring in an Auba Wonderland

Things really are different at the Emirates this season. After his brace against Burnley on Saturday, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang will be top of the Premier League scoring charts on Christmas day. Since Robin van Persie picked up his Golden Boot in 2012 and moved up the M1 to Manchester, Arsenal involvement in the race to be top scorer has been rare. By this stage of 2016/17 Alexis Sánchez had 12 goals, and he finished with an impressive 24, but in a particularly high scoring season, he was only able to finish third overall. That is the only time in the last six full seasons that an Arsenal player has found the net more than 16 times in a league campaign. 

For Aubameyang, however, such a position is not a new feeling. This is a player who, in his last full season in Germany, not only won the cannon award for top scorer in a closely fought race with Robert Lewandowski, but also scored more goals in a single Bundesliga season than anyone since the 1977. Last season he played for two struggling teams whose managers didn't last past May, and his campaign was impacted by the January transfer, but he still managed to score 23 league goals. 

Despite this, however, it actually feels like Aubameyang is somehow underrated, or overlooked, when it comes to the Premier League’s standout players. Even amongst Arsenal fans there sometimes doesn’t seem to be a full recognition of the fact Arsenal have one of world football’s most prolific goal scorers, who isn’t injury prone, a luxury they’ve arguably only had for a single season since Thierry Henry left the club. 

I think Aubameyang ins't helped by his style of play in this regard. His lack of involvement in general play means he rarely stands out in matches, even when he scores. His repertoire of eye-catching goals has actually been better this season than in his time at Borussia Dortmund, but a significant proportion of his goals still look relatively simple and aren't very memorable. It’s not an exaggeration to say that many of his goal celebrations are more spectacular than the goals themselves.

Arsenal more than most clubs have come to appreciate strikers for more than just scoring. Thierry Henry was arguably responsible for helping to change how strikers are viewed in England, thanks to his selflessness in setting up others and amazing all-round dribbling and passing skills. Like Henry, Robin van Persie evolved from a wide man or support striker to a genuine centre forward, while maintaining his top class technique and link up skills. When he became only the second Arsenal striker of the last ten years to score 20 league goals, Alexis Sánchez was still near the top of the league in chances created, through balls and dribbles. Even Olivier Giroud was defended for not being the most prolific striker around because of his perceived ability to bring others into play.

This combines to mean that on a match to match basis, Aubameyang rarely has single performances that are considered particularly impressive. He has four games this season where he scored a brace, yet hasn’t won a man of the match award in the Premier League this term. Sure, the goals at Fulham came when the contest had already been decided, but his goals in the other three were decisive, yet the general consensus afterwards was that there had been better performers. There’s nothing inherently wrong with this. People’s idea of a man of the match display is a complete performance rather than one or two decisive moments. It does, however, show how such a player can go a bit unnoticed. Consistency can sometimes be overlooked at the hands of the spectacular.

Describing what it is that Aubameyang does so well can be both straightforward and quite difficult. His goals speak for themself, but attribute wise it’s harder to explain what makes him so good. He’s not a link up striker and he’s not very good at creating his own shots off the dribble. People often describe poachers like him as clinical finishers, but this hasn't been the case for most of his career. In has last six months at Dortmund he scored just ten goals from almost 14 expected goals in the Bundesliga. This season he’s been efficient in front of goal but has still missed some big chances, like in the 1-1 draw against Wolves or the 2-2 at Old Trafford. His strength is essentially getting on the end of chances. At Dortmund he got on the end of chances more than almost any other player in the world and the goals naturally followed. He’s a similar player to Edinson Cavani in many ways. He can have misses that look sloppy, but his movement allows him to keep churning out good chances, and his fitness and durability allow him to keep getting on the park and produce big numbers over a season.

More to come

Despite him sitting at the top of the Premier League scoring charts, it's clear Arsenal are yet to fully get the best out of Aubameyang. This could either be viewed as a concern - what happens when he goes on a finishing slump? - or as something to be encouraged by - if he’s top scorer now, what could he do if Arsenal managed to eek out even more from him? His non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes figure is currently 0.51, 5th highest in the league. But that pales in comparison to his last 30 months in Dortmund, where the figure was 0.9, one of the absolute highest in Europe. 

His period of elite output in Germany can kind of be broken into two parts. In 15/16 Dortmund were one of the strongest teams in Europe, with a balanced and cohesive midfield and attack able to consistently create all types of chances. Their off ball movement and creativity meant they were regularly able to get in behind opposition defences and all of the front three scored multiple tap ins. After that season key players were sold and injury ruled Marco Reus out for most of Aubameyang's final 18 months in Germany. The team suffered significantly but it only increased their dependence on their star striker. 

Aubameyang formed a brilliant partnership with 19 year old Ousmane Dembélé. The winger assisted 10 of his 29 non-penalty league goals in 16/17. Dembélé is a player who can assist all types of goals, but his trademark assist that season became the low cross to Aubameyang. He had the ability to manufacture space on the wing with his speed, dribbling and two footedness and send low curling crosses to Aubameyang in behind the defence (see 1:20, 1:40, 4:00 and 5:30 on the video below). This is one of the most effective ways Aubameyang utilises his pace. When a wide player gets the ball behind, or even just close to inline with the defensive line, they can play the ball behind the defensive line and Aubameyang has the speed to reach what the defenders and most other forwards in the world can’t. The finish is simple but most players don’t have the athleticism to reach the number of balls he does with his slide tackle esque tap in. 

A winger of Dembélé’s ability makes creating these situations relatively straightforward. Their individual skill allows them to beat a fullback and deliver the killer ball. This isn’t a luxury Arsenal have had since Aubameyang’s arrival, however. Teams without high level one v one players have to rely on good movement and combinations to get into the areas where they can play dangerous passes across goal. Arsenal’s lack of true wingers has been well documented, and as such their route to providing him with such chances has inevitably fallen to the fullbacks. In the early stages of the season Hector Bellerin was Aubameyang’s best route to getting big chances, and since his return from injury and Arsenal's increased use of a back three, Saed Kolasinac has become the Gunners’ chief creator. Here’s a breakdown of the chances created for Aubameyang in the league so far this season: 

While it’s not a surprise that without genuine wingers, Aubameyang has relied on fullbacks for service, it is perhaps concerning that the other attacking players have been responsible for such a small proportion of the big chances he has got on the end of. Only Ramsey has been able to set up multiple chances of decent quality for him, and although Ramsey's assist total is inflated, his xA (expected assists) on passes for Aubameyang in the limited number of minutes they’ve played together is fine. 

I made a graphic showing the chances that have been created for Aubameyang this season and colour coded it by who created the chance. As you can see the majority of chances in the danger zone were created by either Bellerin or Kolasinac. Other than the chance Iwobi created against Chelsea, there's no other openings from the half spaces. 

Most concerning is the lack of significant chances created by Özil and Mkhitaryan. Other than the one assist against Leicester, Özil hasn't been able to find Aubameyang on the end of moves, though he was instrumental in both his first goals against Leicester and Burnley with brilliant pre-assists. Özil did create some good chances for Aubameyang in the few matches they played together last season, which suggests the problem is more down to the Özil specific issues this season rather than a lack of compatibility between the pair. Mkhitaryan enjoyed a fine partnership with Auba in Germany and assisted two of his first three goals for the club, but since then it’s been slim pickings. 

The reality is Arsenal lack a brilliant one v one winger like Leroy Sane who would help get the most out of Aubameyang, and that has to be the focus on the attacking front in future transfer windows. But that doesn't mean the current attacking midfielders can't contribute more. They have the capabilities to be doing more on the creative side, whether it be playing incisive through balls or getting into the half spaces and finding accurate cutbacks. If Aubameyang is to get the goals needed for the Golden Boot and, much more importantly, if Arsenal are to get the goals needed to move back into the top four, both player and club will be hoping for, and relying on, getting more from their chief playmakers.  

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Oscar Wood is a special contributor. Follow him on twitter @reunewal.

Understanding Emery Football And The Importance Of A Back Three

Special Contribution by Oscar Wood. Follow him on Twitter @Reunewal.

That's more like it. That’s what we've been waiting for. Sunday’s North London derby win didn't just give Arsenal their first landmark win of the new era, it also helped give us our clearest indication yet of what it is Unai Emery is trying to achieve on the pitch with this squad. Despite results so far this season being positive, it's hard to escape the feeling a performance such as this was needed for us to get a clear view of what a working Emery Arsenal team looks like.

I think one difficulty Emery has had since joining is that, compared to many of his Premier League compatriots right now, he isn’t as renowned for a particular style of play, nor is what he tries to get his teams doing considered innovative. When Jurgen Klopp, Pep Guardiola and Maurizio Sarri arrived at their clubs they began implementing stylistic overhauls that could easily be observed while watching a single game or making cursory glance at the statistics. With Emery the changes have been more subtle. Arsenal have predominantly still lined up in a variation of 4-2-3-1, they still try to control the ball and build through the thirds and still rely on quick combination play to break teams down.

In fact it’s arguable Emery’s biggest impact so far hasn’t been tactical, it’s been in the physical conditioning of his players, which has helped allow an improved level of intensity on the pitch. Heavy pre-season training sessions and pre-match sessions taking place at kick-off time have clearly contributed to the fact Arsenal have never looked physically outmatched this season (something they often did in previous years) and probably goes someway to explaining their quite incredible second half record this season.

Possession Structure

All that doesn’t mean Emery hasn’t made his own tweaks, however. The most clear tactical shift Emery has made has been in Arsenal’s possession structure. While many modern coaches put an immense amount of focus on the first phase of build up (i.e. the goalkeeper and defenders moving the ball to the midfield) it’s easy to get the sense Arsene Wenger always considered it all a bit tedious. Wenger’s priority in build up was usually to move the ball forward as quickly as possible, to maximise the amount of time the attacking midfielders could spend on the ball in the opposition half.

Anam Hassan has talked extensively about how Wenger would ask his midfielders to push further up the pitch, in an attempt to discourage the opposition from pressing and instead pin them back. Needless to say, this was a high risk, high reward strategy. When it worked Arsenal’s best creative players where able to enjoy lots of the ball, but against stronger pressing opponents Arsenal would regularly come unstuck.

Emery’s play from the back (when using a back four, which he’s done for the majority of the season) is built around the two centre backs and two central midfielders. Probably the most distinctive feature of Emery’s time at Sevilla was his love for a solid double pivot. That trend has been continued at Arsenal. While Wenger liked a clear division of labour between his two central midfielders, often partnering a defensive minded player with a more attacking one like Aaron Ramsey, Emery likes his midfielders to share their buildup and defensive duties. Granit Xhaka, Lucas Torreira and Matteo Guendouzi have been exclusively used in midfield in the Premier League and are all are comfortable acting as a single defensive midfielder. As such Arsenal will often rotate as to which midfielder drops in between the CBs during build up.

The counter to this use of the central midfielders is that the attacking midfielders are instructed to stay high and maintain the team’s shape, rather than dropping deep to help progress the ball themselves. Under Wenger it was common to see the likes of Mesut Özil, and other attacking midfielders, dropping deep, and a midfielder like Ramsey running forward into the vacated space. Such midfield rotations have become effectively extinct under Emery. While pass maps have significant limitations - mainly because they only show a player’s average touch position, not their off ball position - the Arsenal one against Liverpool nicely outlines a typical structure in Arsenal’s 4-2-3-1. There is a clear divide between the central midfielders and attacking midfielders and the fullbacks are getting on the ball in advanced areas.

So far the results of this more meticulous build up play have been mixed. While Arsenal have scored plenty of goals, for most of the season they’ve had the majority of their success in brief spells of dominance, rather than as a constant threat. The odd beautiful goal and five minutes of brilliance has often been preluded with a period where the team has looked ponderous. In fact, one potential reason Arsenal have been so much better in second halves might be that it’s when they’ve released the handbrake, to borrow a Wengerism, and played with greater urgency and freedom that they’ve found their attacking grove.

There have been moments, however, where Arsenal have executed what we might begin to associate as trademark Emery Arsenal. If Wenger football was about getting into opposition territory as quickly as possible then perfect Emery football might be the opposite; a precise build up leading to a fast transition once the ball is played into one of the attackers. The fantastic team goals against Fulham and Leicester are examples, as is this move against Liverpool, where the goalkeeper, both centre backs and both central midfielders are involved.

pic.twitter.com/GLCg3Upq5o

— @Reunewal (@ReunewalComps) December 5, 2018

Aggressive Pressing

Arsenal fans were understandably excited when Unai Emery promised protagonism with and without the ball, and a desire for intensity in pressing. But so far this season Arsenal haven’t show signs of being a particularly aggressive pressing side. This may be down to Emery not believing the squad were ready to successfully implement a very aggressive press, and that there were other issues that needed attention first. Or it could be that he knows what fans like to hear and wanted to start on the good side of Arsenal’s supporters, regardless of his plans for the team.

On Sunday, however, Arsenal put in their most aggressive, and most impressive, pressing performance of the season. That this correlated with Arsenal’s best start to a Premier League match under Emery is likely no coincidence.

Analysing or measuring a press is difficult, because what you’re attempting to analyse is the impact on the opposition rather than something purely to do with your own team, and it can be hard to separate your team’s influence from their own game plan. For example one such measure is the opposition pass accuracy, but when it comes to opponents like Cardiff, who almost always have a poor pass accuracy, it’s hard to argue Arsenal did something specifically that prevented them completing passes. The best measure is probably the number of opposition passes played per Arsenal defensive action (PPDA). This essentially gives you a value for the number of passes a team was able to put together before being engaged in a tackle, interception or foul. Against Tottenham Arsenal recorded their joint lowest PPDA of the season (5.43) meaning Tottenham were rarely able to string long passing sequences together before being engaged by Arsenal pressure.

At 72%, Tottenham also recorded the fifth lowest pass accuracy by any of Arsenal’s 14 opponents this season, and the lowest of anyone currently in the top half. Both Spurs CBs, and Eric Dier, recorded pass accuracies in the 60s, and were regularly forced into hitting harmless long balls up the field instead of building play from the back how they’d like.

Regardless of the level of pressure it’s clear one of the hallmarks of Emery’s philosophy is a high work rate and intensity in his team’s play (Arsenal have regularly been at the forefront of most running stats this season). Sunday showed that, at the right moments, that philosophy can go one step further and be used to implement aggressive and successful pressing plans as well. It’s here where Arsenal can also benefit from the depths of their squad. Whether Emery planned to make a double substitution as early as half time is debatable, but it’s likely Iwobi and Mkhitaryan were went out in the first half with the knowledge they wouldn’t be playing the full 90 minutes, and could thus play above and beyond while they were on the pitch.

Could A Three At The Back Kill Two Birds With One Stone For Arsenal?

Much of the Arsenal discourse in the last couple of months has centred around the impact of Lucas Torreira, and how he’s helped make Arsenal a much more resilient and solid side. While the Uruguayan himself has played at a fine level since becoming a regular starter, the transformative nature of his arrival has perhaps been a bit overstated. Arsenal are still conceding chances. The 18 goals against in 14 matches isn’t itself a particularly good figure, and it could’ve been worse if not for some fine goalkeeping performances from Bernd Leno. The nature of these chances has also been of concern. Before the trip to Bournemouth Arsenal had faced the joint most counter attack shots in the division, along with West Ham and Manchester United. The match against Wolves before the international break showcased the worst of it. The visitors took the lead following a fast break on a turnover, and had multiple chances to add a second on transition.

Arsenal’s opponents have attacked down the middle less this season, 24% of the time compared to 27% last term, which suggests Arsenal’s double pivot might be doing a better job of blocking the middle of the pitch. But this has been counted with a more attacking use of the fullbacks. Arsenal have been particularly vulnerable down the left at times this season. They’ve tended to have a bias towards that side while attacking, mainly because the left footers Xhaka and Özil are more comfortable passing to their left and operating in those zones, which means the players on the left have to push further up the pitch. Given the defenders on the left - Xhaka and Monreal or Kolasinac - are not as athletic as the ones on the right - Bellerin and Torreira - this can be a problem. It’s also possible that, despite clearly not being the player he once was last season, Laurent Koscielny was still an improvement in defence over Sokratis and Rob Holding, and that the change in CB pairing has mitigated the improved defensive performance in Arsenal’s midfield.

Three at the back could help both this problems. Having three players allows the wing backs to get forward the way Emery likes, and allows an extra body to help defend the channels in transition. Additionally simply having three centre backs could also help to somewhat mitigate the fact they’re not of the highest individual level.

In the first 15 minutes at Bournemouth Arsenal seemed to be struggling with the system. Bournemouth attacked with a front four meaning Arsenal got pinned into a back five and struggled to get out with a lack of outlets. There also seemed to be an uncertainty amongst the back five about each others roles, what with Arsenal not having used the system since February. They were possibly fortunate that a marginal offside went their away in that period, but since then they have put in two of their best defensive displays this season. Against Bournemouth and Tottenham respectively, two of the best attacking sides in the league, Arsenal conceded just 0.5 and 0.25 expected goals against from open play.

In Attack

While three centre back formations naturally lead to a focus on the defensive structure and setup, they can also help create different attacking shapes. The most obvious being that, with two wing backs, there’s little need to true ‘wingers’, as seen against Bournemouth and the first half on Sunday, when Alex Iwobi and Henrikh Mkhitaryan were used in inside roles. This is where Wenger’s team benefited the most from the move to a back three. Mesut Özil, Alexis Sánchez and Aaron Ramsey were all able to be used in attacking positions behind the striker without sacrificing width or numbers defensively. Much has been made of Arsenal’s lack of genuine wingers, and while neither Hector Bellerin or Saed Kolasinac can take on players 1v1 the way a true wide forward could, they will at least maintain width and offer runs in behind.

On Sunday, Mauricio Pochettino opted for the midfield diamond that was so successful against Chelsea the week before, but this simply played into Arsenal's hands as the wing backs were afforded even more space. Bellerin was instrumental in Arsenal's possession play, completed the second most passes in the match and helped create the equaliser early in the second half. Kolasinac was the main creative force on the day, creating five chances. No one else from open play created more than two.

To start both fixtures, Emery opted for a clear 3-4-2-1, not a shape that will help get both Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette in the side. However, as his substations at half time on Sunday showed, reversing the attack from a 2-1 shape to a 1-2 is simple enough, and playing two strikers doesn’t sacrifice width or midfield numbers as much in a back three. I think Emery probably prefers a 3-4-2-1 to a 3-4-1-2, because he can maintain the two midfielders and two attacking midfielders shape we saw against Liverpool. But the second half against Tottenham proved that he’s happy to go the other way if he believes it’s the best way forward.

In fact, Emery deserves praise for the significant versatility he has shown in recent weeks. After almost exclusively playing 4-2-3-1 all season, from the second half against Wolves onwards, Emery has tried at least three different shapes. While we were having debates on the merits of results vs performances, Emery has tinkered, first with personnel, then with shape, in the knowledge Arsenal had a much greater level they could go to. Such awareness, when it would’ve been easy to stick with the same lineups while the wins were still coming, is a good thing. Only time will tell if these changes will actually pay off in the long term, but the early signs are positive.

Mesut Özil: Unai Emery’s conundrum

This is part two of a three part series on Mesut Ozil by Oscar Wood.

Yesterday we took a detailed dive on Özil’s 2017/18 season.

An interesting aspect of Mesut Özil is that while opinions of him are vulnerable to extreme fluctuations, his performance levels, and the statistical output he produces, are usually strikingly consistent. Such is the quality and repeatability of his core technical and mental attributes - ball control, passing, movement, decision making, vision - he rarely has an outright bad game, where he performs those aforementioned skills poorly (one rare example was actually the opening day against Manchester City, where his final third passing was a letdown). The most common reason for Özil having a mediocre game is usually external; when he’s put in a position where he can’t utilise his strengths and his weaknesses are exposed more. Usually this is when Arsenal struggle to get control of games and he simply doesn’t see as much of the ball as he’d like. In other words, it’s the age old cliche about how he can’t grab a game by the scruff of the neck, unless it’s there for the taking.

This isn’t an issue for him over a sustained period of matches. Or at least, it hasn’t been so far in his career. Of course, like any player, he goes through physical ups and downs as well, meaning sometimes he has better months than others. But, whereas others like Aaron Ramsey and Henrikh Mkhitaryan may often have games where their touch and weight of pass is off, with Özil you usually know what you're going to get. Often his supposed up and down periods are simply down to the nature of assists. The finish is beyond your control and there’ll be periods where the other forwards run hot and periods where they run cold. 

All this makes his start to the season all the more alarming. The Arsenal fanbase and wider football world has had many moments of doubt surrounding the German before, but it’s rare that a period of Özil scepticism has been matched with a significant drop off in his statistical performance as well. Arsenal’s number 10 is currently underperforming in virtually every metric, with his creativity and overall passing numbers significantly worse than last season. 

Obviously you have to take the sample sizes into consideration, here, but the drop in numbers from Mesut this season are hugely concerning.

And I don’t think that’s a mark on him more than it is on Emery and how he’s tried to use him. pic.twitter.com/muOpmDYvHf

— PM (@ThatGooner) September 24, 2018

While, as mentioned earlier, Özil’s statistics have tended to stay consistent over medium term periods, and we are still very early in the season, the fact Arsenal have a new coach has exasperated fears that Özil’s recent performances could be the start of a new long term trend. Arguably most striking is the drop off in overall involvement. While days can happen where a player fails to create moments of spark, a lack of involvement in possession indicates potential systemic issues. In the Premier League so far this season Özil has completed just 31.1 passes per 90 minutes, less than half of his career high figure in 17/18. To put things into perspective, in a typical game last season only Xhaka would play more passes. This season only Lacazette, Aubameyang and Cech are attempting fewer.

So what factors could be behind Özil’s poor performances this season, and in particular, his lack of involvement compared to previous years? The most obvious change has been in his starting position. Emery has started Özil on the right in four of his five starts. Wenger, of course, almost always used Özil in a primarily central role, with only occasional spells on the wing, such as early in 14/15 and during the European run last season. From his number 10 position Özil had plenty of attacking freedom and regularly ventured to the wings anyway, but he also had responsibility to move towards the centre circle and offer himself in possession when both central midfielders were on the ball. Just look at the areas and volume of his passing on Sunday compared to when Everton came to the Emirates in February.

Özil arguably hasn't been helped by Arsenal’s left side bias in recent matches. In their last three games the Gunners have found progressing the ball up the left side of the pitch a lot easier than building through the right. One reason for this may be Granit Xhaka. Xhaka has usually been the dominant presence in possession, and as a left footer he’s more comfortable patrolling the left side of the pitch and circulating the ball to that side. It’s notable that despite nominally starting on the right, a lot of Özil’s involvement against Everton still came on the left wing. 

In fact, Xhaka’s preference for left sided passing, and Özil’s positioning on the right has significantly disrupted their on pitch relationship. While Xhaka didn’t have his best individual season last year, one thing he did do well was give the ball to Özil. Xhaka to Özil was regularly one of Arsenal’s most prolific pass combinations. The holding midfielder is usually Arsenal’s highest volume passer, and thus a lot of Arsenal’s attacks go through him. With so many of his passes going to Özil, it’s not a surprise the then number 11 followed him as Arsenal’s second most frequent passer in 17/18.

This season that relationship has broken off. On Sunday only 7 of Xhaka’s 82 completed passes found Özil, just under 9%. In the same fixture last season, which Arsenal won 5-1, 17 of Xhaka’s 73 went to Özil, 23%. Equally important is the location of their combinations. On Sunday the few times Xhaka did find Özil was when Özil made rare venues to the left wing. There were only a couple in the central areas of the pitch, while in the fixture last season, the majority came in those spaces. Without that direct exchange with Xhaka, the ball has to go through different routes to get to Arsenal’s number ten, and it’s not a surprise he's seeing a lot less of the ball.  

It’s likely that a simple change of putting Özil back into the centre will not only prevent him from being isolated on one wing, but will also help Arsenal’s build up play and overall balance in possession. The central midfielders will have easier forward pass options, as Özil is more comfortable receiving in the number ten space than Ramsey is. If Aubameyang were to continue on the left, then getting Özil on the ball frequently in central areas could help him to operate as more of an outlet. The irony of Arsenal’s current left side bias is that while their best playmaker feels isolated on the right, their best outlet and poacher in the box is regularly involved in build up on the touchline, far from goal, and is often having to put crosses in for others when ideally he’d be the one getting on the end of moves. In these last few matches the rare times Özil has moved away from his position on the right have been some of the rare times Arsenal have looked potent going forward. His role in the build up to Aubameyang’s goal at Cardiff is an example. 

Against Chelsea and West Ham, Mkhitaryan was used on the right, with Özil central for one and absent for the other. Bellerin and Mkhitaryan enjoyed their partnership, and Arsenal did a lot more attacking down that wing in those two games. As @ThatGooner alluded to in his thread, Mkhitaryan likes to make runs behind into the channels, which creates space and allows a run for the right back to try and pick out. While Özil can make those kind of runs, it’s more of a change up option for him. He usually likes to come short and drift inside, and Bellerin hasn’t been able to build the same sort of partnership with him during build up, which has contributed to Arsenal's left side bias. 

Occasionally it'll be suggested that Özil’s form last autumn was down to him playing for a new contract, and that after securing a huge wage increase, he’s reached a comfort level that is hindering his motivation. That is a possibility. But it’s also a malicious accusation to throw at an elite athlete who has worked hard his whole life on improving his craft. His Europa League performances last season also show there's still hunger there beneath his usual solemn demeanour. Given his play style, Özil should still have more years to give to Arsenal at something close to peak level. If Arsenal are to play their best attacking football, if the Unai Emery era is to become a success, or if Arsenal simply want to avoid financial disaster, it’s imperative Emery finds a way to get more out of Arsenal's highest earner, and most gifted footballer. 

The most obvious reason that Özil has been shafted wide is because of Emery’s preference for using Ramsey as the number ten. In part three we’ll look at the difficulties of accommodating both Özil and Ramsey in the same team. 

Oscar is on Twitter @Reunewal. Follow him there.

Mesut Özil: Beyond the Narrative

This is part one of a three part series on Mesut Ozil by Special Contributor Oscar Wood

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It has not been a good few months for Mesut Özil. His 2017/18 season finished disappointingly on a team level, with Arsenal’s elimination at the hands of Atletico Madrid in the Europea League. He then became part of a political storm in Germany when he and Ilkay Gündoğan posed for a photograph with Turkish president Erdoğan. What should’ve been a forgotten matter by the time of the World Cup reared back into focus after Germany’s earliest elimination in 72 years. The lack of support for Özil within the board and the negative press that surrounded the player, which regularly bordered on the extreme and had particularly sinister connotations in relation to the player’s national heritage, cumulated in one of the more shocking international retirements of recent memory. To make matters worse, the Arsenal man has had a particularly poor start to the season, just when supporters are hoping for an uptick in fortunes for the club. 

With all the negative attention that has surrounded the German in recent weeks and months, it has been easy to overlook something else. Something that might not be as obvious at the moment, but something that is just as important, if not more so, than anything else currently being said or written about the player. Mesut Özil is still Arsenal’s best player. At the moment, with him taking home a healthy £350,000 a week from the club, and his last top draw performance coming many months ago, people might scorn at the idea Arsenal’s new number ten is worthy of such a billing. But rewind eight or nine months and the narrative surrounding Özil was entirely different. With the negative energy of Arsenal fans predominantly focused on Alexis Sánchez it was easier to see the positive aspects of Özil’s play. The good will was only be helped by the building rumours of a new contract extension that cumulated with his renewal at the beginning of February. The road since has been more rocky. The burden that comes with such a wage hike started to bear heavy almost immediately, and the team overall have had few successes since their star man signed on. 

That can make it easy to forget just how important Özil is to Arsenal, and how good his performances were as recently as last season. Indeed, his 2017/18 season has become more underrated with time, thanks to recency bias and a combination of on pitch factors that meant he didn’t get quite the amount of recognition he could’ve done. In the Premier League he put in many of his best performances for the Gunners, was one of the Europa League's standout players in its latter stages, and was a consistent performer whenever he got on the field at the Emirates stadium. 

At face value, Özil’s eight Premier League assists represent a mediocre return for someone of his reputation as a creator. However, when it came to creating chances from open play, it was one of Özil’s best ever seasons. The 2.99 key passes per 90 minutes he played from non-set piece situations was the highest figure he’s had in a Premier League season, beating his previous best of 2.80 from 2015/16. One of the criticisms of the key pass stat (some call it chances created, they’re the same thing), and this isn’t without valid reason, is that it doesn’t take into account the quality of the chances created. Any pass that leads to a shot is one key pass, whether it’s a big chance, or a shot from 30 yards. But Özil’s expected assists per 90 figure was 0.38, which was the same figure as Kevin De Bruyne’s, who was widely cited as the league’s outstanding midfielder and creator last term. It was also higher than Özil's own figures in 14/15 and 16/17 figures (there’s no data for his 13/14 season) abut down on his astonishing 0.52 in 15/16. One thing which hurts his overall creative numbers is the fact he took fewer set pieces in 17/18. In 17/18 he averaged 3.2 corner takes and 0.9 free kick takes per 90 minutes. In 15/16 those figures were 4.3 and 1.3 respectively. His 16/17 figures were similar (they were slightly lower before that, Cazorla used to take quite a few). In other words he was taking one and a half fewer set pieces per match last season. Xhaka got three assists directly from corners last season, whereas in 16/17 he got none. Had Özil taken all the extra corners Xhaka took last season, his overall assist tally may have looked better. There isn’t open play only xA data publicly available unfortunately. But a significant reason why Özil’s xA per 90 in 15/16 (0.52) was better than his 17/18 figure (0.38) would’ve been those extra set pieces he took. 

Özil’s impact doesn’t just come with the final ball, however. Last season he actually increased his already significant responsibility in Arsenal’s possession play, particularly during the part of the season when the Gunners operated with a back three. That formation left Arsenal with fewer ball playing midfielders, and Özil became a key facilitator for Aaron Ramsey to make his trademark forward runs and support the attack. In the Premier League he completed a career high 65.05 passes per 90 minutes and was one of the league's best when it came to progressing the ball up the pitch. At his peak during the season from October to the end of January, he would regularly start a passing move, keep up with the play, then lay off the final pass to finish the play, like in the clip below against Palace.

pic.twitter.com/0tiDBunCvM

— @Reunewal (@ReunewalComps) September 26, 2018

In the 2-2 draw against Chelsea, even Gary Neville was impressed by the way he took control of the match and dictated things for Arsenal. In that match he dominated possession in the final third. Özil was playing so many passes in dangerous areas of the pitch that he ended up playing 22 passes to Alexis, a remarkably high figure for a pass combinations between two forwards in a big game, which was bettered only by the 24 passes Xhaka played to Özil. 

What didn’t help Özil’s cause is the perception surrounding his absences from the team in 2018. A back injury ended his club season after Arsenal’s Europa League tie with Atletico Madrid and seemed to disrupt his World Cup. Özil isn’t the only player to miss games through injury and illness, but with him there is definitely an impression that, at best, he misses games too easily, and, at worst, has excuses for him entirely fabricated so he can enjoy extra time off. When he misses games there are more tinfoil hat appearances on the Twittersphere than there are for perhaps any other player. We have to ask ourselves whether such attitudes to his absences are really fair. After missing the West Ham game Unai Emery became the third manager in recent years to excuse Özil from a game because of illness. What is more likely; three different managers deciding to give him special treatment, or him simply having a below average immune system? 

On face value Özil missed 12 league games, which isn’t great. However the majority of these came from February onwards, when Arsenal’s priorities shifted from domestic competition to their European run. He played every Europa League knockout game bar the Östersunds home tie, and was a standout player in the competition (only in the Atletico away match did he fail to put in a high quality performance). In other words, there were essentially just five games Özil missed that were important to Arsenal’s season. In the Premier League and Europa league knockout stage, the important fixtures in Arsenal's season, Özil played the fourth most minutes for Arsenal, more than the likes of Lacazette, Monreal, Ramsey and Koscielny. Missing sporadic games here and there also looks bad because of the number of different no shows, but when almost all the absences are short the collective damage is minor. Missing three one off games through illness is certainly no worse than missing five weeks with a muscle strain. 

Of course, not even Özil’s biggest detractors will argue he’s incapable of doing useful things on a football pitch. The debate has always been about whether the trade offs of giving such a narrowly defined player great responsibility are worth it. Do you gain more than you lose? Özil is best used centrally rather than wide, but he can neither defend like a true midfielder, nor score like a true second striker. These traits make him something that is surprisingly common in the Arsenal squad; a player with a few elite skills who needs a fairly confined role in order to prosper to his full capabilities (I think Aubameyang and Ramsey fall into this category as well, somewhat). 

Arsene Wenger clearly felt the positives of building around Özil outweighed the negatives and gave him significant freedom and responsibility to be an on pitch leader for Arsenal. Sometimes it paid off, sometimes it didn’t. Unai Emery has up till now used him in a more periphery role, which has so far failed to produce anything like Özil’s top form. But it has arguably hurt Arsenal’s overall attack as well. As of yet, the Gunners have been able to find consistent fluency without their number ten at the heartbeat of things. After a season of under appreciated heights in 2017/18, 

it would be a shame if Özil’s best performances were to become purely a thing of the past under Unai Emery. 

Tomorrow we’ll take a look at the beginnings of Özil’s 2018/19 season, and why the German has so far struggled under Unai Emery.

Oscar is on Twitter @Reunewal. Follow him there.