by Oscar Wood (@reunewal)
During the many struggles Arsenal have faced over the course of the last two seasons, one of the few consistent positives has been the emergence of an increasingly large selection of talented young players. While the hype around any young footballers who show signs of promise is rarely lacking at the best of times, the situation at Arsenal has only led to this being intensified. Starting from the Europa League group stage last season, the performances of these younger players has often been in contrast to the struggles of older, more highly paid players, who have themselves been underperforming. What more, with Arsenal currently looking as far away from the elite of European football as they have been for decades, the idea of talented academy products and youth signings provides an element of long term hope that simply doesn’t exist in the short term.
Arguably the most impressive performer so far, as well as the most exciting prospect is Bukayo Saka. Not only has he been a consistent starter and one of the best performers for Arsenal in the Premier League for a year now, he’s also a talent with few clear limitations and boundaries when it comes to his development possibilities. Left back, left wing, right wing, weird left wing-back/left sided interior hybrid, Saka has flourished to various extents playing all of them. What more, his mastery of these different roles is only growing. Just two weeks ago I tweeted scepticism that the right wing would be his ultimate position, only for him to put in probably his most complete right sided performance of his senior career in the next game at West Brom.
In some ways, it’s this versatility of Saka that entices people the most. One of the reasons fans love young players in the first place is that there are fewer constraints to what they could become. Even top quality older players are restricted to their strengths and weaknesses that are unlikely to change much. With a youngster of Saka’s ilk this isn’t the case, fans can envisage almost any future they want for the player.
The number of best case scenarios that have been suggested for his future peak are countless: a cut-in and shoot scorer and creator from the right (Arjen Robben), a dynamic outside winger on the left (Leroy Sane), a creative interior (David Silva), a versatile box-to-box player (Blaise Matuidi), a dynamic left-back (Alphonso Davies), a Swiss army knife left sided player (Raphaël Guerreiro).
Of course, Saka still has to make significant progress in his development if he’s to reach the heights any of those players have, but the signs are good at such a young age. He has shown some good off ball movement, an ability to create his own shots and an eye for a final ball that suggests he could become a prolific forward. His xG + xA per 90 in the league this season is 0.4, bettered only by Ferran Torres and Phil Foden for players under 22 in the Premier League.
In terms of his general play, he has been an integral part in the build of multiple goals - both v West Ham, and the equaliser v Southampton - with his dribbling and passing. If he is to become more of an outright midfielder the next step is arguably to simply get on the ball more, as he’s shown he has the quality to do good things with it. Arsenal have lacked a high touch attacking player post-Özil and Alexis, someone you can give the ball to against a set defence in hope of inspiration. That has often been Saka this season but it has usually come in flashes rather than across 90 minutes. It could, however, simply be a case that the team improving and becoming more dominant will see Saka become that player.
Rather than pigeonholing him into one role and assessing his development relative to that, it seems best to simply let him grow, and only fix a role for him based on the aspects of his game that continue to improve.
Gabriel Martinelli’s game is a lot more simple. Since his move to North London, he has proven to be very effective at getting on the end of moves for a teenager in his first season playing at the elite level, and has been an incredibly committed and hard working presser. It is the latter that has helped endear him so much to fans. His energy and determination is infectious and is the sort of thing that can lift his teammates as well as fans.
He is, however, still incredibly raw, which isn’t a surprise or a criticism given it’s only 18 months ago that he came to the club from the Brazilian fourth tier. There have been obvious comparisons between him and Alexis Sanchez, Arsenal’s last superstar South American forward. The comparison fits in the position they play and the attitude and personality they play with. Martinelli, however, hasn’t shown much to suggest he can be the ball dominant, dribbling, creative force that Alexis was at Arsenal. There’s room for that side of his game to grow, however, and even without it, he’s still good enough to be a useful Premier League player at 19 thanks to his athletic capabilities and his movement.
It’s at this point worth noting that expecting Martinelli to reach the next level in the next season or two probably isn’t realistic. There are many examples of current Premier League attackers - Raheem Sterling, Marcus Rashford, Christian Pulisic - who broke through as capable starters at the age of 18 and mostly stayed at that level for a few years before reaching another level in their early 20s. For Gabi the next couple of years will be about building minutes, and Arsenal fans will likely have to put up with his current deficiencies once his new prospect shine begins wearing off - which history suggests will happen.
Peter (@ThatGooner) has done a comprehensive analysis on Martinelli that looks into the micro details of his game that is worth reading.
Emile Smith-Rowe is probably the player with the most immediate upside for the team, since the squad has no other player who provides the same skills or operates in the same zones of the pitch.
Smith-Rowe looks very much like the archetype modern number 10. Like Saka, he has demonstrated an impressive level of footballing intelligence when it comes to his movement and choice of pass, but he also has the level of athleticism needed to be a threat in transition, both in carrying the ball at this feet and in the runs he can make off it. The Saka goal at West Brom was probably the most encouraging bit of play in Arsenal’s season, and the best example of Smith-Rowe’s most important qualities. He plays a first time line breaking pass and then immediately sprints into the space in behind. It’s the kind of pass and move play that has been so lacking in recent times.
While it’s the potential creative upside of his game that excites people the most, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s his carrying of the ball and his goal scoring threat that becomes his best asset. From the limited amounts of him I’ve seen at Arsenal and in highlights for Huddersfield, his passing seems competent for a Premier League number 10 rather than potentially special. That said it really is too early to make definitive judgements. He has still played only five Premier League matches in his career. Now that he has established himself very much in the first XI picture, he needs to finally have an extended run of staying fit before we can make more clear judgements.
The flip-side of the rise of three three over the last year has been the scaling back of expectations for the 99 generation of Hale End products, all of whom are 21 and are yet to establish themselves as should be starters. That, however, doesn’t mean they no longer serve value.
Eddie Nketiah could fairly make a case that he is the rarest of things, an under-hyped academy product. While he lacks the traits of a future superstar, at 21 he has already proven himself to be competent at the hardest skill in football; scoring goals. Both last season and this season his non-penalty xG in the Premier League has been fractionally better than Aubameyang’s. While Arsenal’s Europa League group this season was particularly weak, Nketiah still dominated it, scoring 3 and producing over 4 xG from 20 shots within the box. No other Arsenal player who played the group stage was able to get close to as many good shots off. Even his failure to get starts ahead of Patrick Bamford at Leeds last season looks a lot less damning now than it did then.
Nketiah probably won’t become a striker good enough to lead Arsenal where they want to be, but he is likely already close to being a bottom half Premier League starter, with plenty of years ahead of him to continue to grow. For Arsenal that leaves him as a good squad player or a potential sale for a sizeable profit, like Alex Iwobi before him, who can make space for the next product on the conveyor belt, such as Folarin Balogun, to take his place in the squad.
Reiss Nelson was at one stage considered the biggest prospect at Arsenal - having won player of the season in the PL 2 as Arsenal u23 won the division in 2017/18 - but a failure to push on in the first team and the emergence of aforementioned others has seen him become something of a forgotten man. I still think he can offer value as a technically secure wide player, but it’s looking unlikely that he will become a truly prolific wide forward in the Premier League.
Joe Willock hype arguably peaked 18 months ago, and his reputation among Arsenal fans now feels very low compared to his new peers. He has reached an interesting stage of his career where he has been able to dominate the Europa League group stages, but in the PL minutes he has been given he hasn’t been able to make much impression. Now 21 it feels like he’s moved beyond loan age, but one could still be useful to a club near the top end of Championship or the lower end of the Bundesliga. Somewhere where he could play lots of minutes and the club can make a more definitive judgement on his level. It seems unlikely his passing and overall technical level will ever be good enough to be a starting midfielder for a club with top four aspirations, but he does still offer a unique profile in the squad with his off ball running from deep areas.
Moving away from the 21 and under club, the trio of 23 year olds in Kieran Tierney, Gabriel and Ainsley Maitland-Niles will also have big roles to play in Arsenal’s continue rebuild. Tierney has already become a cult hero amongst the fanbase and the last few weeks have seen his best performance level at the club. While Gabriel fell back to earth somewhat in his last few performances of 2020, his season so far remains the most promising displays from a young(ish) centre back at Arsenal since probably Laurent Koscielny’s debut season. The hope is that those two will form the left side of Arsenal’s defence for years to come. Maitland-Niles remains in an interesting place. In only a year Arteta has flip-flopped on his use of Maitland-Niles multiple times. While it’s still possible he could make the right back spot his own, it seems more likely that if he’s not sold he’ll remain a valuable squad member; a versatile player who can play either fullback spot thanks to his great one v one defending.
Of course it would be remiss to mention that it’s not all been rosey with Arsenal’s younger players recently. Two years ago Mattéo Guendouzi was comfortably the most polished youngster at the club, and was already proving a fine Premier League midfielder at 19. Without getting into the rights and wrongs of his demise under Arteta, it feels unlikely Arsenal’s best young midfielder has much of a future at the club, which is a massive shame. Meanwhile William Saliba, signed for an eye watering £27 million in 2018, has essentially had six wasted months playing under 23 football. At 19 it was probably unrealistic to expect him to be ready to start in the Premier League, and the whole ordeal doesn’t mean he now can’t be a long term success at Arsenal, but the club were indecisive during the summer as to whether he was ready, and this has cost him development time.
A talented collection of young players is by no means new for Arsenal. With the likes of Cesc Fabregas, Nicolas Anelka, Jack Wilshere, Aaron Ramsey, Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in the last couple of decades, Arsenal have had some of the best teenage players in the world at their club, guys who were key players on teams that were among the European elite. Even in more recent history, the likes of Serge Gnabry, Jeff Reine-Adélaïde, Ismaël Bennacer and Donyell Malen have been around only to fall by the wayside. This current generation is benefitting from the fact Arsenal have to lean into them, and are thus getting more opportunities to showcase their talent.
Academy products - and cheap young signings, which essentially fall into the same bracket - can serve three functions. They can provide a cheap route to a star player who would be too expensive to obtain through the market, such as Harry Kane at Tottenham. They can provide a cheap way to fill out the squad, as Manchester United did so successfully under Ferguson, something Tim Stillman has pointed out numerous times on the pod and in articles. Or they can be sold for profit, as Alex Iwobi was when he left for Everton.
In Saka and Martinelli, Arsenal have prospects that have shown signs they could become future star players. If just one of them, or someone else, can reach that level, then this crop of players will have succeeded. Most of the current 21 and under club will likely never become more than reliable starters or squad options, and that is fine. For a while now some of us have been frustrated that the club hasn’t focused more of their transfer strategy on younger players. The current success of these players show that a 20 year old prospect can be just as good, if not better, at football than an experienced player on big wages. Maybe this will be an epiphany for Arsenal’s long term rebuild.